Kazakhstan Premier League, round 23 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Tobol Kostanay — Zhenis
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Tobol Kostanay are clear favourites: 52% against 22% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Tobol Kostanay are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tobol Kostanay — Zhenis What is xG? | 1.6–1.0 | |
| Tobol Kostanay not to lose | 78% | |
| Zhenis not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
91 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Tobol Kostanay
- Tobol Kostanay goals
- Zhenis goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 10.10FC Astana2:1
- 17.09FC Yelimay0:2
- 13.09away · Kairat Almaty4:1
- 06.09Ulytau3:1
- 30.08away · Kaspiy Aktau0:1
- 10.10Atyrau1:2
- 18.09away · Okzhetpes Kokshetau1:3
- 12.09FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk3:1
- 09.09away · Kairat Almaty0:3
- 05.09away · Aktobe0:1
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Zhenis — Tobol Kostanay1:0
- 29.06.2025Tobol Kostanay — Zhenis2:2
- 08.03.2025Zhenis — Tobol Kostanay0:0
- 04.10.2024Zhenis — Tobol Kostanay2:1
- 27.04.2024Tobol Kostanay — Zhenis1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Yelimay | 26 | 10 | 0 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 27 | 11 | -1 | 37 |
| 8 | Ulytau | 27 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
| 9 | Zhenis | 27 | 8 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspiy Aktau | 27 | 9 | -8 | 32 |
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- 5425211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- 363033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.2
- 2627462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →