Brazilian Serie B, round 34 · Monday, 19 October, MSK
Vila Nova — Novorizontino
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 19 October
In short
Novorizontino are slightly stronger: 38% against 31%, draw 30%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 35%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Novorizontino are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vila Nova — Novorizontino What is xG? | 1.0–1.1 | |
| Vila Nova not to lose | 62% | |
| Novorizontino not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 35% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 65% |
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- Vila Nova goals
- Novorizontino goals
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Form
- 11.10away · Náutico2:0
- 08.10Cuiabá0:0
- 04.10away · Botafogo SP1:0
- 26.09Londrina2:0
- 19.09América-MG1:0
- 13.10Ponte Preta5:1
- 09.10away · Náutico2:0
- 02.10Goiás3:0
- 26.09São Bernardo0:0
- 19.09away · Ceará1:2
Head to head
- 27.06.2026Novorizontino — Vila Nova2:1
- 28.09.2025Novorizontino — Vila Nova1:1
- 31.05.2025Vila Nova — Novorizontino0:1
- 31.08.2024Novorizontino — Vila Nova2:0
- 15.05.2024Vila Nova — Novorizontino2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | +15 | 61 |
| 2, Promotion | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | +31 | 60 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Juventude | 33 | 17 | +18 | 60 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →