La Liga, round 9 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Villarreal — Elche
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Villarreal are clear favourites: 72% against 10% for the opponent, draw 18%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Villarreal are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Villarreal — Elche What is xG? | 2.3–0.9 | |
| Villarreal not to lose | 90% | |
| Elche not to lose | 28% | |
| No draw | 82% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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- Handicap Villarreal
- Villarreal goals
- Elche goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 13.10Napoli3:1
- 10.10away · Real Madrid0:1
- 20.09Levante3:1
- 17.09away · Málaga3:1
- 14.09Real Betis1:2
- 11.10Celta Vigo0:0
- 18.09away · Espanyol3:1
- 15.09Real Madrid2:3
- 12.09away · Athletic Club1:1
- 07.09Real Sociedad2:3
Head to head
- 08.03.2026Villarreal — Elche2:1
- 03.01.2026Elche — Villarreal1:3
- 04.02.2023Elche — Villarreal3:1
- 04.09.2022Villarreal — Elche4:0
- 16.01.2022Elche — Villarreal1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | -4 | 6 |
| 18, Relegation | Elche | 8 | 1 | -6 | 6 |
| 19, Relegation | Valencia | 8 | 1 | -9 | 5 |
La Liga on the same day
- 2527482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- 1825562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.5
- 383131XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →