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UEFA Champions League, round 2 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Estadio de la Cerámica

Villarreal — Napoli

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Model prediction and result

3:1Came true
Villarreal40%
Draw27%
Napoli34%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Villarreal to win (40%), came true.

Evenly matched: Villarreal 40%, Napoli 34%, draw 27%.

The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.

Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Villarreal are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
  • Villarreal: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Villarreal — Napoli What is xG?1.4–1.3
Villarreal not to lose66%
Napoli not to lose60%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.553%
Total under 2.547%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Villarreal
  • Villarreal goals
  • Napoli goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Villarreal

  • 10.10away · Real Madrid0:1
  • 20.09Levante3:1
  • 17.09away · Málaga3:1
  • 14.09Real Betis1:2
  • 08.09away · Borussia Dortmund2:3

Napoli

  • 10.10Frosinone3:0
  • 20.09away · Fiorentina1:1
  • 13.09Bologna1:0
  • 09.09Arsenal0:1
  • 05.09away · Inter2:3

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Manchester City11002–0+23
10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Villarreal21015–4+13
11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Aston Villa11003–2+13
30Slavia Prague20022–5-30
31Napoli20021–4-30
32Lille20022–6-40

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • VeneziaNapoli17 October · Serie A
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
  • VillarrealElche17 October · La Liga
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3

Champions League on the same day

  • LensSporting CP
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
  • Sabah FKSlavia Prague
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
  • InterClub Brugge
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 3:4. Model's score: 3:1.3.0
  • ArsenalLille
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:0, exactly right.3.4
  • Atlético MadridManchester United
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
  • RB LeipzigPSV Eindhoven
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
  • GalatasarayBarcelona
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
  • VikingBayern München
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 3:3. Model's score: 0:3.3.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →