A-League Men (Australia), round 2 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Wellington Phoenix — Central Coast Mariners
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Wellington Phoenix are slightly stronger: 46% against 28%, draw 26%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Wellington Phoenix are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Wellington Phoenix — Central Coast Mariners What is xG? | 1.7–1.3 | |
| Wellington Phoenix not to lose | 72% | |
| Central Coast Mariners not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Wellington Phoenix
- Wellington Phoenix goals
- Central Coast Mariners goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 24.04away · Macarthur FC0:4
- 18.04Western Sydney Wanderers FC2:1
- 12.04away · Melbourne City FC0:2
- 05.04away · Melbourne Victory1:0
- 21.03away · Brisbane Roar FC2:1
- 25.04away · Newcastle Jets0:4
- 19.04away · Auckland FC1:0
- 10.04Brisbane Roar FC2:2
- 07.04away · Melbourne City FC1:2
- 04.04Perth Glory2:2
Head to head
- 21.12.2025Wellington Phoenix — Central Coast Mariners3:1
- 02.11.2025Central Coast Mariners — Wellington Phoenix1:1
- 25.01.2025Wellington Phoenix — Central Coast Mariners0:0
- 10.11.2024Central Coast Mariners — Wellington Phoenix0:3
- 06.04.2024Central Coast Mariners — Wellington Phoenix2:1
A-League on the same day
- Sydney FCAdelaide Unitedpreliminary4227311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →