English Premier League: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 320 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 320 matches 10,000 times. Manchester City have the best chance to win the title: 46%, Arsenal 34%. Closest to the drop: Tottenham Hotspur (48%).
Race for the title
| Date | Manchester City | Arsenal | Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | Brentford | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 August | 22% | 24% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 6% |
| 31 August | 37% | 29% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 6% |
| 7 September | 33% | 41% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% |
| 14 September | 38% | 41% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| 21 September | 40% | 31% | 10% | 4% | 5% | 3% |
| 28 September | 41% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 5% | 3% |
| 5 October | 40% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 5% | 3% |
| 12 October | 45% | 35% | 11% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| 14 October | 46% | 34% | 12% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Europe” counts “UCL” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | UCL | Europe | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 18 (6) | 80 | 17 | 46%▲6 | 91%▲7 | 95%▲6 | — |
| 2 | Arsenal | 15 (6) | 78 | 19 | 34%▲4 | 89%▲9 | 94%▲8 | — |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 13 (6) | 69 | 18 | 12%▲1 | 64%▲12 | 74%▲12 | <1% |
| 4 | Brentford | 10 (6) | 60 | 10 | 2%▼3 | 32%▼4 | 44%▼3 | 2%▲1 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 9 (6) | 57 | 11 | 1%▼3 | 22%▼8 | 32%▼8 | 3%▲1 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 10 (6) | 56 | 15 | 1% | 20%▲7 | 29%▲10 | 5%▼3 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 9 (6) | 56 | 14 | 1%▼1 | 17%▼5 | 26%▼5 | 4%▲1 |
| 8 | Manchester United | 6 (6) | 55 | 9 | 1%▼2 | 18%▼7 | 26%▼8 | 5%▲2 |
| 9 | Everton | 10 (6) | 53 | 2 | <1%▼1 | 12%▼1 | 19% | 6%▲1 |
| 10 | Nottingham Forest | 5 (6) | 49 | 5 | <1%▼1 | 7%▼3 | 12%▼3 | 11%▲4 |
| 11 | AFC Bournemouth | 3 (6) | 48 | 16 | <1% | 5%▼5 | 9%▼6 | 14%▲6 |
| 12 | Sunderland | 4 (6) | 47 | 20 | <1% | 4%▼2 | 7%▼3 | 17%▲4 |
| 13 | Aston Villa | 5 (6) | 46 | 13 | <1% | 4% | 7% | 19%▼2 |
| 14 | Newcastle United | 8 (6) | 46 | 1 | <1% | 4%▼3 | 7%▼4 | 21%▲8 |
| 15 | Hull City | 9 (6) | 44 | 3 | <1% | 2% | 4% | 22%▲2 |
| 16 | Ipswich Town | 9 (6) | 44 | 4 | <1% | 3%▲1 | 5%▲1 | 26%▼3 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 7 (6) | 43 | 8 | <1% | 2%▲1 | 4%▲2 | 27%▼9 |
| 18 | Fulham | 2 (6) | 41 | 6 | <1% | 1%▼1 | 2%▼2 | 33%▲6 |
| 19 | Coventry City | 6 (6) | 40 | 12 | <1% | 1%▲1 | 2%▲2 | 38%▼12 |
| 20 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 (6) | 37 | 7 | <1% | <1% | 1%▲1 | 48%▼6 |
Chance of every place
Show the 20 × 20 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 46 | 25 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Arsenal | 34 | 31 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 12 | 18 | 20 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Brentford | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Liverpool | 1 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Chelsea | 1 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Leeds United | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Manchester United | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Everton | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nottingham Forest | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | |
| AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | |
| Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | |
| Aston Villa | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | ||
| Newcastle United | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 6 | ||
| Hull City | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | ||
| Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | ||
| Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||
| Fulham | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |||
| Coventry City | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 15 | ||||
| Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 20 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Premier League: matches and table →
Premier League: power rankings →