Portuguese Primeira Liga: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 235 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 235 matches 10,000 times. FC Porto have the best chance to win the title: 45%, Benfica 37%. Closest to the drop: Casa Pia AC (52%).
Race for the title
| Date | Benfica | FC Porto | Sporting CP | Braga | Famalicão | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 August | 23% | 20% | 34% | 9% | 3% | 2% |
| 17 August | 27% | 25% | 32% | 8% | 1% | 2% |
| 24 August | 35% | 29% | 26% | 6% | <1% | 2% |
| 31 August | 32% | 30% | 30% | 6% | <1% | 1% |
| 7 September | 31% | 26% | 35% | 6% | — | <1% |
| 14 September | 46% | 24% | 28% | 1% | — | <1% |
| 21 September | 36% | 44% | 17% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 28 September | 35% | 45% | 17% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 October | 36% | 45% | 16% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 12 October | 39% | 44% | 16% | 1% | — | <1% |
| 14 October | 37% | 45% | 16% | 1% | — | <1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “UCL incl. qual.” counts “UCL” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | UCL | UCL incl. qual. | Europe | Play-out | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 (8) | 78 | 12 | 45% | 77%▲1 | 93%▲1 | 99% | — | — |
| 2 | Benfica | 19 (8) | 77 | 18 | 37%▲1 | 73%▲4 | 93%▲5 | >99%▲2 | — | — |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 18 (8) | 71 | 15 | 16% | 42% | 80%▲5 | 97%▲2 | — | — |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 18 (8) | 58 | 1 | 1% | 3%▼2 | 12%▼3 | 58%▲2 | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | Braga | 11 (7) | 57 | 14 | 1%▼1 | 3%▼3 | 12%▼6 | 54%▼5 | <1% | <1% |
| 6 | Arouca | 14 (8) | 51 | 11 | <1% | 1% | 4% | 27%▲1 | 1% | <1%▼1 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 11 (7) | 48 | 4 | <1% | <1%▼1 | 2%▼1 | 19%▲2 | 1%▼1 | 1%▼1 |
| 8 | Alverca | 11 (8) | 47 | 17 | <1% | <1% | 1%▲1 | 15%▲9 | 2%▼2 | 1%▼4 |
| 9 | Académico Viseu | 14 (8) | 47 | 16 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 14%▲2 | 2% | 1%▼1 |
| 10 | Vitória de Guimarães | 5 (8) | 41 | 13 | — | <1% | <1%▼1 | 5%▼3 | 4% | 4%▲1 |
| 11 | Famalicão | 7 (8) | 41 | 6 | — | <1% | <1%▼1 | 4%▼10 | 5%▲3 | 4%▲3 |
| 12 | Estrela da Amadora | 10 (8) | 41 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 5% | 5%▼1 |
| 13 | Marítimo | 8 (8) | 37 | 9 | — | — | <1% | 1%▼1 | 9% | 12%▲1 |
| 14 | Moreirense | 8 (8) | 35 | 10 | — | — | <1% | 1% | 12%▲1 | 17%▲3 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 7 (8) | 31 | 7 | — | — | <1% | <1% | 15%▲1 | 33%▼18 |
| 16 | Nacional | 4 (8) | 31 | 3 | — | — | — | <1%▼1 | 14% | 34%▲10 |
| 17 | Estoril | 2 (8) | 30 | 2 | — | — | <1% | <1% | 15% | 36%▲3 |
| 18 | Casa Pia AC | 4 (8) | 27 | 8 | — | — | — | <1% | 15%▼1 | 52%▲4 |
Chance of every place
Show the 18 × 18 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 45 | 32 | 16 | 4 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Benfica | 37 | 35 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Sporting CP | 16 | 26 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Santa Clara | 1 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 22 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Braga | 1 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Arouca | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Gil Vicente | 2 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Alverca | 1 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Académico Viseu | 1 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Vitória de Guimarães | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Famalicão | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Estrela da Amadora | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||
| Marítimo | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 4 | ||||
| Moreirense | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 7 | ||||
| Rio Ave | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 16 | ||||||
| Nacional | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 17 | 17 | ||||||
| Estoril | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 19 | ||||||
| Casa Pia AC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 32 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Primeira Liga: matches and table →
Primeira Liga: power rankings →