Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay): 2026 (Clausura) season forecast
10,000 simulations · 64 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 64 matches 10,000 times. Atlético Nacional have the best chance to win the regular season: 51%, América de Cali 27%.
Race for first place
| Date | Atlético Nacional | América de Cali | Tolima | Independiente Medellín | Bucaramanga | Millonarios |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 July | 29% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 12% | 3% |
| 3 August | 29% | 17% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 5% |
| 10 August | 18% | 38% | 7% | 12% | 4% | 7% |
| 17 August | 17% | 38% | 7% | 11% | 5% | 8% |
| 24 August | 26% | 37% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 7% |
| 31 August | 42% | 37% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 5% |
| 7 September | 40% | 40% | 5% | 10% | 1% | 1% |
| 14 September | 49% | 41% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 21 September | 52% | 26% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 2% |
| 28 September | 43% | 39% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 1% |
| 5 October | 48% | 37% | <1% | 1% | 7% | <1% |
| 12 October | 51% | 27% | — | 1% | 11% | <1% |
| 13 October | 51% | 27% | — | 1% | 11% | <1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Top 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 23 (11) | 39 | 18 | 51%▲3 | >99% |
| 2 | América de Cali | 27 (13) | 38 | 15 | 27%▼10 | >99% |
| 3 | Bucaramanga | 23 (11) | 35 | 14 | 11%▲4 | 98%▲1 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cali | 25 (13) | 34 | 12 | 5%▼1 | 99%▲1 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 22 (12) | 34 | 13 | 4%▲3 | 96%▲11 |
| 6 | Independiente Medellín | 23 (13) | 32 | 5 | 1% | 90%▲10 |
| 7 | Millonarios | 22 (14) | 31 | 17 | <1% | 89%▼2 |
| 8 | Tolima | 20 (14) | 28 | 11 | — | 57%▼12 |
| 9 | Águilas Doradas | 15 (12) | 25 | 6 | <1% | 23%▼4 |
| 10 | Once Caldas | 16 (13) | 25 | 8 | — | 19%▲7 |
| 11 | Cúcuta | 18 (13) | 24 | 2 | — | 13%▲6 |
| 12 | Llaneros FC | 14 (13) | 22 | 16 | — | 7%▼4 |
| 13 | Junior FC | 10 (12) | 22 | 20 | — | 8%▼7 |
| 14 | Internacional de Bogotá | 14 (14) | 21 | 19 | — | 2%▼1 |
| 15 | Chicó FC | 12 (12) | 19 | 10 | — | 1%▼1 |
| 16 | Alianza FC | 12 (13) | 18 | 4 | — | <1% |
| 17 | CD Jaguares | 10 (12) | 17 | 9 | — | <1% |
| 18 | Fortaleza FC | 11 (13) | 17 | 1 | — | <1% |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 9 (12) | 17 | 3 | — | <1% |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 9 (12) | 15 | 7 | — | <1% |
Chance of every place
Show the 20 × 20 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Nacional | 51 | 24 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| América de Cali | 27 | 35 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Bucaramanga | 11 | 14 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Deportivo Cali | 5 | 12 | 20 | 23 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Santa Fe | 4 | 10 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Independiente Medellín | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Millonarios | 2 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 21 | 21 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Tolima | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Águilas Doradas | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Once Caldas | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Cúcuta | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| Llaneros FC | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Junior FC | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Internacional de Bogotá | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||||||||
| Chicó FC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 6 | ||||||||
| Alianza FC | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 9 | |||||||||
| CD Jaguares | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 18 | |||||||||
| Fortaleza FC | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 11 | |||||||||
| Deportivo Pasto | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 17 | |||||||||
| Deportivo Pereira | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 37 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Colombian Primera A: matches and table →
Colombian Primera A: power rankings →