Russian Premier League: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 160 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 160 matches 10,000 times. Zenit St. Petersburg have the best chance to win the title: 37%, Dinamo Moscow 24%. Closest to the drop: Rodina (72%).
Race for the title
| Date | FC Krasnodar | Zenit St. Petersburg | Dinamo Moscow | Spartak Moscow | CSKA Moscow | Baltika |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 July | 32% | 35% | 6% | 10% | 6% | 2% |
| 3 August | 30% | 45% | 3% | 9% | 5% | 3% |
| 10 August | 38% | 31% | 4% | 11% | 6% | 5% |
| 17 August | 40% | 38% | 2% | 10% | 5% | 3% |
| 24 August | 44% | 24% | 3% | 18% | 6% | 3% |
| 31 August | 45% | 26% | 4% | 16% | 3% | 4% |
| 7 September | 45% | 22% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 2% |
| 14 September | 34% | 25% | 15% | 18% | 5% | 2% |
| 21 September | 22% | 29% | 20% | 21% | 7% | 1% |
| 28 September | 24% | 27% | 20% | 20% | 6% | 1% |
| 5 October | 22% | 29% | 20% | 21% | 6% | 1% |
| 12 October | 18% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 7% | <1% |
| 14 October | 18% | 37% | 24% | 12% | 8% | 1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | Play-out | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit St. Petersburg | 21 (10) | 60 | 16 | 37%▲8 | — | — |
| 2 | Dinamo Moscow | 22 (10) | 58 | 13 | 24%▲4 | <1% | — |
| 3 | FC Krasnodar | 21 (10) | 57 | 11 | 18%▼4 | <1% | — |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 20 (10) | 55 | 15 | 12%▼9 | <1% | — |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 22 (10) | 53 | 1 | 8%▲2 | <1% | <1% |
| 6 | Baltika | 12 (10) | 45 | 14 | 1% | 2%▲1 | <1% |
| 7 | Krylya Sovetov Samara | 12 (10) | 38 | 8 | <1% | 12%▼3 | 3%▼2 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 12 (10) | 38 | 6 | <1% | 12%▲2 | 3% |
| 9 | FC Orenburg | 12 (10) | 38 | 9 | <1% | 13%▼9 | 3%▼8 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 10 (10) | 37 | 10 | <1% | 14%▼6 | 4%▼7 |
| 11 | FK Akhmat | 11 (10) | 36 | 5 | <1% | 16%▲1 | 4%▼2 |
| 12 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 12 (10) | 35 | 3 | <1% | 22%▲12 | 7%▲4 |
| 13 | FC Rostov | 11 (10) | 34 | 4 | <1% | 26% | 9%▼7 |
| 14 | Akron Togliatti | 8 (10) | 27 | 2 | — | 36%▲6 | 37% |
| 15 | Fakel | 3 (10) | 24 | 12 | — | 28%▼1 | 58%▲15 |
| 16 | Rodina | 5 (10) | 22 | 7 | — | 20%▼2 | 72%▲7 |
Chance of every place
Show the 16 × 16 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenit St. Petersburg | 37 | 25 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Dinamo Moscow | 24 | 23 | 19 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| FC Krasnodar | 18 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Spartak Moscow | 12 | 17 | 20 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| CSKA Moscow | 8 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Baltika | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Krylya Sovetov Samara | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Rubin Kazan | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| FC Orenburg | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Lokomotiv Moscow | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| FK Akhmat | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Dynamo Makhachkala | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| FC Rostov | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| Akron Togliatti | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 22 | 15 | ||||||
| Fakel | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27 | 30 | |||||||
| Rodina | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 25 | 47 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Russian Premier League: matches and table →
Russian Premier League: power rankings →