Serie A: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 320 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 320 matches 10,000 times. Inter have the best chance to win the title: 51%, Roma 28%. Closest to the drop: Venezia (68%).
Race for the title
| Date | Inter | Roma | Juventus | Como | Napoli | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 August | 31% | 18% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 5% |
| 31 August | 32% | 26% | 12% | 10% | 5% | 4% |
| 7 September | 31% | 39% | 10% | 11% | 2% | 1% |
| 14 September | 38% | 39% | 5% | 11% | 3% | 1% |
| 21 September | 47% | 31% | 8% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 28 September | 47% | 32% | 8% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 5 October | 46% | 33% | 7% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 12 October | 51% | 30% | 5% | 6% | 3% | <1% |
| 14 October | 51% | 28% | 6% | 6% | 3% | <1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Europe” counts “UCL” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | UCL | Europe | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 16 (6) | 84 | 19 | 51%▲5 | 92%▲3 | 97%▲1 | — |
| 2 | Roma | 14 (6) | 79 | 20 | 28%▼5 | 86%▼1 | 95% | — |
| 3 | Juventus | 11 (6) | 69 | 14 | 6%▼1 | 51%▼3 | 76% | <1% |
| 4 | Como | 11 (6) | 69 | 17 | 6% | 52%▲6 | 76%▲7 | <1% |
| 5 | Napoli | 10 (6) | 66 | 18 | 3%▲1 | 39%▲8 | 65%▲11 | <1%▼1 |
| 6 | Milan | 12 (6) | 63 | 10 | 2%▼1 | 28%▼4 | 54%▼2 | <1%▼1 |
| 7 | Lazio | 16 (6) | 62 | 3 | 2% | 24%▲1 | 48%▲2 | <1%▼1 |
| 8 | Sassuolo | 8 (6) | 53 | 13 | <1% | 7%▼2 | 20%▼2 | 4%▼1 |
| 9 | Atalanta | 9 (6) | 53 | 11 | <1% | 7%▼1 | 19%▼1 | 4%▼1 |
| 10 | Cagliari | 13 (6) | 51 | 9 | <1% | 4%▼1 | 14%▼1 | 5%▲1 |
| 11 | Bologna | 5 (6) | 48 | 6 | <1% | 3% | 9% | 9%▼2 |
| 12 | Frosinone | 10 (6) | 46 | 8 | <1% | 2%▼2 | 7%▼5 | 12%▲3 |
| 13 | Torino | 7 (6) | 46 | 12 | <1% | 2%▲1 | 7%▲3 | 13%▼9 |
| 14 | Udinese | 4 (6) | 44 | 16 | <1% | 2%▼2 | 6%▼5 | 17%▲6 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 4 (6) | 43 | 5 | <1% | 1%▼1 | 4%▼3 | 19%▲5 |
| 16 | Monza | 4 (6) | 41 | 7 | <1% | 1% | 3%▼1 | 25%▲1 |
| 17 | Genoa | 4 (6) | 39 | 4 | — | <1% | 1% | 30%▼11 |
| 18 | Parma | 4 (6) | 35 | 15 | — | <1% | <1%▼1 | 46%▲5 |
| 19 | Lecce | 6 (6) | 35 | 2 | — | <1% | <1%▼1 | 48%▲3 |
| 20 | Venezia | 0 (6) | 30 | 1 | — | <1% | <1% | 68%▲3 |
Chance of every place
Show the 20 × 20 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 51 | 23 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Roma | 28 | 31 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Juventus | 6 | 12 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Como | 6 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Napoli | 3 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Milan | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Lazio | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Sassuolo | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Atalanta | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cagliari | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Bologna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Frosinone | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| Torino | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | ||
| Udinese | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | ||
| Fiorentina | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | |||
| Monza | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | ||||
| Genoa | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 8 | |||||
| Parma | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 14 | |||||||
| Lecce | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 17 | ||||||
| Venezia | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 18 | 36 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.