Ukrainian Premier League: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 179 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 179 matches 10,000 times. Shakhtar Donetsk have the best chance to win the title: 71%, Polissya Zhytomyr 13%. Closest to the drop: Kudrivka (82%).
Race for the title
| Date | Shakhtar Donetsk | Polissya Zhytomyr | Karpaty | Dynamo Kyiv | FC Kharkiv | LNZ Cherkasy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 August | 36% | 14% | 10% | 16% | 6% | 9% |
| 10 August | 56% | 11% | 10% | 13% | 5% | 3% |
| 17 August | 57% | 12% | 21% | 8% | <1% | <1% |
| 24 August | 60% | 4% | 24% | 10% | <1% | <1% |
| 31 August | 37% | 19% | 25% | 14% | 1% | <1% |
| 7 September | 48% | 27% | 14% | 1% | 9% | <1% |
| 14 September | 46% | 27% | 18% | 1% | 6% | <1% |
| 21 September | 59% | 22% | 8% | 3% | 8% | — |
| 28 September | 59% | 23% | 8% | 3% | 8% | — |
| 5 October | 59% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 9% | — |
| 12 October | 72% | 12% | 3% | 5% | 8% | — |
| 13 October | 71% | 13% | 3% | 5% | 8% | — |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Europe” counts “UCL incl. qual.” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | UCL incl. qual. | Europe | Play-out | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 21 (8) | 71 | 16 | 71%▲12 | 71%▲12 | 96%▲2 | — | — |
| 2 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 19 (8) | 62 | 13 | 13%▼8 | 13%▼8 | 68%▼8 | — | — |
| 3 | FC Kharkiv | 15 (7) | 60 | 14 | 8%▼1 | 8%▼1 | 57%▲5 | — | — |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 16 (7) | 57 | 9 | 5%▲2 | 5%▲2 | 40%▲15 | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | Karpaty | 14 (8) | 56 | 15 | 3%▼5 | 3%▼5 | 36%▼14 | <1% | — |
| 6 | Zorya | 11 (8) | 42 | 11 | <1% | <1% | 1%▲1 | 4%▼7 | 1%▼1 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 11 (8) | 41 | 7 | — | — | 1% | 5%▼2 | <1%▼1 |
| 8 | FC Kolos Kovalivka | 8 (7) | 36 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 15%▼13 | 2%▼6 |
| 9 | Kryvbas | 5 (6) | 35 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 18%▲4 | 4% |
| 10 | Veres Rivne | 9 (8) | 35 | 12 | — | — | <1% | 18%▲5 | 3%▲1 |
| 11 | Bukovyna Chernivtsi | 8 (8) | 34 | 10 | — | — | <1% | 20%▼7 | 4%▼3 |
| 12 | Liviy Bereh | 7 (7) | 33 | 5 | — | — | <1% | 21%▲11 | 4%▲2 |
| 13 | Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi | 8 (8) | 31 | 2 | — | — | <1% | 32%▲10 | 8%▲3 |
| 14 | Chornomorets Odesa | 5 (7) | 29 | 8 | — | — | <1% | 37%▲2 | 13% |
| 15 | Obolon Kyiv | 4 (7) | 19 | 1 | — | — | — | 17% | 79%▲1 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 2 (8) | 17 | 3 | — | — | — | 14%▼3 | 82%▲3 |
Chance of every place
Show the 16 × 16 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 71 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Polissya Zhytomyr | 13 | 31 | 24 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||
| FC Kharkiv | 8 | 23 | 26 | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | |||||||||
| Dynamo Kyiv | 5 | 15 | 20 | 24 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| Karpaty | 3 | 12 | 20 | 26 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| Zorya | 1 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| LNZ Cherkasy | 1 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| FC Kolos Kovalivka | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| Kryvbas | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| Veres Rivne | 1 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 2 | |||||
| Bukovyna Chernivtsi | 1 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Liviy Bereh | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| Chornomorets Odesa | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 17 | 20 | 10 | 3 | |||||
| Obolon Kyiv | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 39 | 39 | |||||||||
| Kudrivka | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 52 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Ukrainian Premier League: matches and table →
Ukrainian Premier League: power rankings →