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Uzbekistan Super League: 2026 season forecast

10,000 simulations · 56 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026

The model played the remaining 56 matches 10,000 times. Neftchi Fargona have the best chance to win the title: 69%, Pakhtakor Tashkent 30%.

Race for the title

0%20%40%60%80%100%2 March22 Junetoday● Neftchi Fargona 69%● Pakhtakor Tashke… 30%● Navbahor Namangan 1%● Bunyodkor Tashke… —● Lokomotiv Tashke… —● Buxoro —
Chance to win the title by week. Each point is the forecast as of that Monday.
Chance to win the title by week
DateNeftchi FargonaPakhtakor TashkentNavbahor NamanganBunyodkor TashkentLokomotiv TashkentBuxoro
2 March10%8%17%16%7%5%
9 March26%14%3%2%15%10%
16 March50%5%7%1%9%8%
23 March62%7%3%3%4%12%
30 March62%8%3%2%4%13%
6 April78%7%2%3%1%3%
13 April59%17%8%5%1%6%
20 April68%19%9%2%<1%1%
27 April75%20%3%<1%<1%<1%
4 May86%11%1%<1%<1%1%
11 May85%12%1%<1%<1%<1%
18 May86%12%1%<1%<1%—
25 May85%12%1%<1%<1%1%
1 June85%12%1%<1%<1%1%
8 June86%11%1%—<1%1%
15 June86%11%1%<1%<1%<1%
22 June85%12%1%<1%<1%1%
29 June85%12%1%<1%<1%1%
6 July85%12%2%<1%<1%1%
13 July86%12%1%<1%<1%<1%
20 July91%8%<1%<1%<1%<1%
27 July91%9%<1%——<1%
3 August89%10%<1%—<1%<1%
10 August93%6%<1%—<1%<1%
17 August94%6%<1%——<1%
24 August93%6%1%——<1%
31 August94%4%1%—<1%<1%
7 September81%17%2%—<1%<1%
14 September75%22%3%—<1%—
21 September81%17%2%———
28 September82%16%2%———
5 October81%17%2%———
12 October69%29%1%———
14 October69%30%1%———

Chances of every team

Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.

#TeamPtsProj.Run-inTitle
1Neftchi Fargona52 (23)661169%▼12
2Pakhtakor Tashkent52 (23)64430%▲13
3Navbahor Namangan45 (23)5791%▼1
4Nasaf Qarshi37 (23)5016—
5Lokomotiv Tashkent38 (23)487—
6Buxoro37 (23)4812—
7AGMK36 (23)468—
8Dinamo Samarkand30 (23)4114—
9Andijon30 (23)3910—
10Qizilqum Zarafshon30 (23)383—
11Sogdiana28 (23)361—
12Surkhon-201127 (23)3613—
13Kokand 191223 (23)312—
14Bunyodkor Tashkent22 (23)3115—
15Xorazm22 (23)296—
16Mashal Muborak4 (23)85—

Chance of every place

Show the 16 × 16 table
Team12345678910111213141516
Neftchi Fargona69283
Pakhtakor Tashkent305911
Navbahor Namangan11273112
Nasaf Qarshi738261792
Lokomotiv Tashkent42428221552
Buxoro220252717721
AGMK1715243015521
Dinamo Samarkand2513282214952
Andijon13920241813831
Qizilqum Zarafshon14101923201463
Sogdiana26121721191372
Surkhon-201115111721241351
Kokand 191213713242922
Bunyodkor Tashkent13510223029
Xorazm137172646
Mashal Muborak100

Percent; empty cells are under 1%.

How it is calculated

Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.

Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.

A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.

Uzbekistan Super League: matches and table →
Uzbekistan Super League: power rankings →