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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Thursday, 8 October, MSK

Almetyevsk — Khimik

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Model prediction and result

3:2Came true
Almetyevsk40%
Draw in regulation22%
Khimik38%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:2: the model's most likely outcome, Almetyevsk to win (51% incl. overtime), came true.

Close to a coin flip: Almetyevsk 51%, Khimik 49% including overtime.

The model expects plenty of goals: 5.1 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.6 and 2.5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Almetyevsk — Khimik2.6–2.5
Almetyevsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Khimik to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)54%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Almetyevsk
  • Almetyevsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Almetyevsk

  • 04.10away · Gornyak2:1 SO
  • 02.10away · Chelmet Chelyabinsk2:4
  • 30.09away · Magnitka Magnitogorsk2:1 OT
  • 28.09away · Orsk1:2
  • 23.09Perm2:1

Khimik

  • 06.10away · CSK VVS8:2
  • 02.10SKA-VMF St. Petersburg1:0
  • 30.09Dinamo St. Petersburg4:3 OT
  • 26.09Gornyak1:4
  • 24.09Chelmet Chelyabinsk6:0

Head to head

  • 03.03.2026Khimik — Almetyevsk3:4
  • 21.09.2025Almetyevsk — Khimik4:2
  • 05.02.2025Khimik — Almetyevsk4:1
  • 16.10.2024Almetyevsk — Khimik4:2
  • 03.12.2023Khimik — Almetyevsk1:2 OT

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, PlayoffsAlmetyevsk15110444–30+1422
2, PlayoffsBuran Voronezh14102231–22+922
8, PlayoffsKaluga1383229–19+1019
9, PlayoffsKhimik1482446–28+1818
10, PlayoffsSKA-VMF St. Petersburg1280432–21+1116

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • BarsKhimik10 October · VHL
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:3.4.7
  • AlmetyevskZvezda Moscow10 October · VHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%Final score 3:5. Model's score: 3:1.5.1

VHL on the same day

  • CSK VVSZvezda Moscow
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • RyazanOrsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 125%Final score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 2:1.3.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →