PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK

Almetyevsk — Zvezda Moscow

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

3:5Missed
Almetyevsk59%
Draw in regulation20%
Zvezda Moscow22%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:5: the model's most likely outcome, Almetyevsk to win (71% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 71% fails in about 29 matches out of 100 on average.

Almetyevsk are clear favourites: 71% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 5.1 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 45%.

Why

  • Almetyevsk are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Almetyevsk — Zvezda Moscow3.1–2.0
Almetyevsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)71%
Zvezda Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout)29%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)45%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)55%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Almetyevsk
  • Almetyevsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Almetyevsk

  • 08.10Khimik3:2
  • 04.10away · Gornyak2:1 SO
  • 02.10away · Chelmet Chelyabinsk2:4
  • 30.09away · Magnitka Magnitogorsk2:1 OT
  • 28.09away · Orsk1:2

Zvezda Moscow

  • 08.10away · CSK VVS3:2
  • 02.10Dinamo St. Petersburg2:4
  • 30.09SKA-VMF St. Petersburg1:3
  • 24.09Gornyak2:3
  • 22.09Chelmet Chelyabinsk1:2

Head to head

  • 05.03.2026Zvezda Moscow — Almetyevsk3:4
  • 19.09.2025Almetyevsk — Zvezda Moscow7:1
  • 07.03.2025Almetyevsk — Zvezda Moscow5:4
  • 13.09.2024Zvezda Moscow — Almetyevsk3:1
  • 10.01.2024Zvezda Moscow — Almetyevsk3:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, PlayoffsAlmetyevsk15110444–30+1422
2, PlayoffsBuran Voronezh14102231–22+922
24Olympia1451837–42-511
25Zvezda Moscow1451833–45-1211
26Kurgan1234519–33-1410

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • AlmetyevskDinamo St. Petersburg12 October · VHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 4:2.5.6
  • BarsZvezda Moscow12 October · VHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 5:2. Model's score: 2:1.4.4

VHL on the same day

  • HC NorilskToros Neftekamsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 5:3. Model's score: 2:1.4.5
  • CSK VVSDinamo St. Petersburg
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 3:5. Model's score: 2:3.5.3
  • AKMOrsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.4.3
  • BarsKhimik
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:3.4.7
  • RyazanMagnitka Magnitogorsk
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%Final score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 1:2.3.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →