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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Isomäki Areena

Assat — Hameenlinna

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Model prediction and result

2:3 SOMissed
Assat49%
Draw in regulation23%
Hameenlinna28%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:3 SO: the model's most likely outcome, Assat to win (62% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 62% fails in about 38 matches out of 100 on average.

Assat are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 34%.

Why

  • Assat are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Assat — Hameenlinna2.5–1.9
Assat to win (incl. OT and shootout)62%
Hameenlinna to win (incl. OT and shootout)38%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)34%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)66%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Assat
  • Assat goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Assat

  • 07.10away · Jukurit1:0
  • 03.10away · Lukko5:2
  • 02.10Lukko0:3
  • 26.09away · Hameenlinna4:5 OT
  • 25.09SaiPa0:5

Hameenlinna

  • 03.10Karpat2:1 OT
  • 02.10JYP2:1
  • 29.09away · Jokerit0:3
  • 26.09Assat5:4 OT
  • 22.09Lukko1:3

Head to head

  • 26.09.2026Hameenlinna — Assat5:4 OT
  • 07.02.2026Hameenlinna — Assat3:1
  • 27.12.2025Assat — Hameenlinna4:3 OT
  • 03.10.2025Hameenlinna — Assat2:4
  • 12.09.2025Assat — Hameenlinna4:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit14630536–29+724
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsAssat12612330–27+322
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarpat13523335–34+122
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku11501529–25+416

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • HameenlinnaKooKoo10 October · Liiga
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 5:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.1
  • KalPaAssat14 October · Liiga
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0

Liiga on the same day

  • Kiekko-EspooJYP
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 6:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.3
  • IlvesLukko
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:5. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
  • KooKooJukurit
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 3:1.5.3
  • PelicansKarpat
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
  • KalPaTappara
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →