PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Olvi Areena

KalPa — Tappara

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

2:3Missed
KalPa40%
Draw in regulation22%
Tappara38%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, KalPa to win (51% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.

Close to a coin flip: KalPa 51%, Tappara 49% including overtime.

5.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 49%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.7 and 2.6.

Probabilities

Expected goals: KalPa — Tappara2.7–2.6
KalPa to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Tappara to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)49%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)51%

109 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap KalPa
  • KalPa goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

KalPa

  • 03.10away · Jukurit1:2 OT
  • 02.10SaiPa4:3
  • 26.09Lukko1:2
  • 23.09away · KooKoo5:4
  • 18.09Ilves1:2

Tappara

  • 02.10Jokerit3:2 OT
  • 30.09KooKoo3:0
  • 26.09SaiPa2:4
  • 24.09away · Lukko2:3
  • 22.09Karpat4:0

Head to head

  • 07.03.2026Tappara — KalPa3:4 SO
  • 27.02.2026KalPa — Tappara1:10
  • 19.09.2025Tappara — KalPa8:1
  • 13.09.2025KalPa — Tappara3:5
  • 04.01.2025Tappara — KalPa2:4

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLukko11610429–23+620
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsPelicans10501424–23+116
13, Relegation play-offKalPa11401627–29-213
14, Relegation play-offIFK Helsinki11312531–34-313

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • TapparaTPS Turku10 October · Liiga
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.5.0
  • IFK HelsinkiKalPa10 October · Liiga
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 6:1. Model's score: 2:3.5.0

Liiga on the same day

  • Kiekko-EspooJYP
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 6:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.3
  • AssatHameenlinna
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 2:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.4.5
  • IlvesLukko
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:5. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
  • KooKooJukurit
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 3:1.5.3
  • PelicansKarpat
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →