Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Assat — IFK Helsinki
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Assat are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.
Why
- Assat are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Assat — IFK Helsinki | 2.6–2.3 | |
| Assat to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 57% | |
| IFK Helsinki to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 43% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 41% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Assat
- Assat goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Hameenlinna2:3 SO
- 07.10away · Jukurit1:0
- 03.10away · Lukko5:2
- 02.10Lukko0:3
- 26.09away · Hameenlinna4:5 OT
- 10.10KalPa6:1
- 08.10away · Jokerit2:3 OT
- 03.10away · Vaasan Sport3:2 OT
- 26.09away · Pelicans1:2
- 25.09JYP3:4
Head to head
- 28.02.2026Assat — IFK Helsinki1:4
- 03.12.2025IFK Helsinki — Assat4:2
- 01.11.2025IFK Helsinki — Assat3:0
- 18.10.2025Assat — IFK Helsinki5:0
- 26.02.2025Assat — IFK Helsinki3:4 SO
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Jukurit | 14 | 6 | +7 | 24 |
| 3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Assat | 12 | 6 | +3 | 22 |
| 4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Karpat | 13 | 5 | +1 | 22 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | KalPa | 11 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | IFK Helsinki | 11 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 15, Relegation play-off | Vaasan Sport | 11 | 3 | -11 | 13 |
Liiga on the same day
- HameenlinnaKiekko-Espoopreliminary44562The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
- LukkoKooKoopreliminary60401The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
- SaiPaJYPpreliminary60401The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.6
- TapparaIlvespreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
- TPS TurkuPelicanspreliminary56441The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.3
- KalPaJokeritpreliminary73271The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:15.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →