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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 30 October, MSK

Lukko — KooKoo

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Model prediction for 30 October

Lukko48%
Draw in regulation21%
KooKoo31%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Lukko are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 53%.

Why

  • Lukko are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 2.5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lukko — KooKoo3.0–2.5
Lukko to win (incl. OT and shootout)60%
KooKoo to win (incl. OT and shootout)40%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)53%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)47%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Lukko
  • Lukko goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Lukko

  • 09.10away · Ilves5:1
  • 03.10Assat2:5
  • 02.10away · Assat3:0
  • 26.09away · KalPa2:1
  • 24.09Tappara3:2

KooKoo

  • 10.10away · Hameenlinna3:5
  • 09.10Jukurit4:1
  • 03.10Pelicans3:6
  • 30.09away · Tappara0:3
  • 26.09Jukurit3:5

Head to head

  • 06.03.2026Lukko — KooKoo4:2
  • 07.02.2026KooKoo — Lukko1:3
  • 17.10.2025KooKoo — Lukko2:5
  • 02.10.2025Lukko — KooKoo3:1
  • 14.02.2025Lukko — KooKoo3:8

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa11521330–20+1020
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLukko11610429–23+620
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
16, Relegation play-offJokerit13212825–42-1710
17, RelegationKooKoo121011025–52-274

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • AssatIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
  • HameenlinnaKiekko-Espoopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • SaiPaJYPpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.6
  • TapparaIlvespreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
  • TPS TurkuPelicanspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.3
  • KalPaJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:15.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →