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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 30 October, MSK

TPS Turku — Pelicans

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Model prediction for 30 October

TPS Turku44%
Draw in regulation23%
Pelicans33%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

TPS Turku are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.4 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 31%.

Why

  • TPS Turku are more dangerous in attack: 2.3 expected goals against 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: TPS Turku — Pelicans2.3–2.0
TPS Turku to win (incl. OT and shootout)56%
Pelicans to win (incl. OT and shootout)44%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)31%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)69%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap TPS Turku
  • TPS Turku goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

TPS Turku

  • 10.10away · Tappara3:4 SO
  • 03.10JYP4:1
  • 30.09away · Kiekko-Espoo2:4
  • 27.09away · Ilves2:3
  • 25.09away · Jokerit2:1

Pelicans

  • 09.10Karpat2:3 OT
  • 03.10away · KooKoo6:3
  • 26.09IFK Helsinki2:1
  • 22.09away · Jokerit0:3
  • 19.09JYP1:3

Head to head

  • 07.02.2026Pelicans — TPS Turku2:0
  • 23.01.2026TPS Turku — Pelicans3:4 OT
  • 25.10.2025Pelicans — TPS Turku1:2 OT
  • 17.09.2025TPS Turku — Pelicans3:1
  • 15.03.2025Pelicans — TPS Turku3:4 OT

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku11501529–25+416
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsPelicans10501424–23+116
13, Relegation play-offKalPa11401627–29-213

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • AssatIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
  • HameenlinnaKiekko-Espoopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • LukkoKooKoopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
  • SaiPaJYPpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.6
  • TapparaIlvespreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
  • KalPaJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:15.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →