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KHL · Wednesday, 30 September, MSK · Tatneft Arena

Bars Kazan — Barys Astana

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Model prediction and result

4:1Came true
Bars Kazan64%
Draw in regulation18%
Barys Astana18%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Bars Kazan to win (76% incl. overtime), came true.

Bars Kazan are clear favourites: 76% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.

Why

  • Bars Kazan are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 1.8.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Bars Kazan — Barys Astana3.2–1.8
Bars Kazan to win (incl. OT and shootout)76%
Barys Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout)24%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)42%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)58%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Bars Kazan
  • Bars Kazan goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Bars Kazan

  • 26.09away · Magnitogorsk1:2
  • 24.09away · Novosibirsk3:2 SO
  • 21.09Lada3:2 OT
  • 18.09away · Sochi2:3
  • 16.09away · Salavat Ufa4:3 OT

Barys Astana

  • 27.09SKA St. Petersburg3:5
  • 26.09Niznekamsk3:6
  • 22.09away · Dynamo Moscow4:1
  • 20.09away · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl5:0
  • 18.09away · Magnitogorsk0:3

Head to head

  • 08.01.2026Bars Kazan — Barys Astana3:1
  • 18.10.2025Barys Astana — Bars Kazan2:3 SO
  • 07.10.2025Bars Kazan — Barys Astana4:3
  • 25.09.2025Barys Astana — Bars Kazan1:2
  • 20.03.2025Barys Astana — Bars Kazan0:8

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceDinamo Minsk1565442–48-617
12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBarys Astana1480654–40+1416
13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSpartak Moscow1472536–28+816
14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBars Kazan1571734–35-115
15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceYekaterinburg1362534–32+214

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Bars KazanTractor Chelyabinsk2 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • NiznekamskBarys Astana2 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.4.9

KHL on the same day

  • YekaterinburgLada
    1The most likely outcome came true: 119%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • Lokomotiv YaroslavlNovosibirsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:1.4.0
  • ShanghaiMagnitogorsk
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 218%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:5.6.1
  • SochiSalavat Ufa
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 219%Final score 6:3. Model's score: 1:4.5.0
  • Spartak MoscowTractor Chelyabinsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →