KHL · Friday, 2 October, MSK · Tatneft Arena
Bars Kazan — Tractor Chelyabinsk
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2:3Missed
In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Bars Kazan to win (57% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 57% fails in about 43 matches out of 100 on average.
Bars Kazan are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.
Why
- Bars Kazan are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bars Kazan — Tractor Chelyabinsk | 2.7–2.3 | |
| Bars Kazan to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 57% | |
| Tractor Chelyabinsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 43% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 43% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Bars Kazan
- Bars Kazan goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 30.09Barys Astana4:1
- 26.09away · Magnitogorsk1:2
- 24.09away · Novosibirsk3:2 SO
- 21.09Lada3:2 OT
- 18.09away · Sochi2:3
- 30.09away · Spartak Moscow4:2
- 28.09away · Dynamo Moscow2:1 OT
- 25.09SKA St. Petersburg3:4
- 20.09Avangard Omsk2:1
- 18.09Spartak Moscow1:3
Head to head
- 09.09.2026Bars Kazan — Tractor Chelyabinsk2:1
- 31.03.2026Bars Kazan — Tractor Chelyabinsk2:1 OT
- 29.03.2026Tractor Chelyabinsk — Bars Kazan2:3 OT
- 27.03.2026Tractor Chelyabinsk — Bars Kazan3:2
- 25.03.2026Bars Kazan — Tractor Chelyabinsk4:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Spartak Moscow | 14 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Bars Kazan | 15 | 7 | -1 | 15 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Yekaterinburg | 13 | 6 | +2 | 14 |
| 19 | Avangard Omsk | 13 | 6 | -12 | 12 |
| 20 | Tractor Chelyabinsk | 13 | 5 | -9 | 10 |
| 21 | Sochi | 14 | 3 | -30 | 6 |
Next matches
- Bars KazanLokomotiv Yaroslavl5 October · KHL47532The most likely outcome came true: 225%0:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.3.9
- Tractor ChelyabinskKhabarovsk6 October · KHL66341The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.9
KHL on the same day
- 80201The most likely outcome came true: 117%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.2
- 69311The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%2:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 4:1.4.6
- 68321The most likely outcome came true: 121%3:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:1.4.6
- 64361The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%4:5OTFinal score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.4.9
- 46542The most likely outcome came true: 221%0:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:4.5.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →