KHL · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Tatneft Arena
Bars Kazan — Cherepovets
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1:4Missed
In short
Final score 1:4: the model's most likely outcome, Bars Kazan to win (60% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 60% fails in about 40 matches out of 100 on average.
Bars Kazan are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.
Why
- Bars Kazan are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bars Kazan — Cherepovets | 2.8–2.3 | |
| Bars Kazan to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 60% | |
| Cherepovets to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 40% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 43% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Bars Kazan
- Bars Kazan goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 05.10Lokomotiv Yaroslavl0:2
- 02.10Tractor Chelyabinsk2:3
- 30.09Barys Astana4:1
- 26.09away · Magnitogorsk1:2
- 24.09away · Novosibirsk3:2 SO
- 08.10away · Nizhny Novgorod3:2
- 06.10away · SKA St. Petersburg5:2
- 03.10Shanghai2:1 OT
- 01.10Vladivostok3:4 SO
- 26.09Sochi3:1
Head to head
- 16.03.2026Cherepovets — Bars Kazan4:2
- 30.12.2025Bars Kazan — Cherepovets4:3 SO
- 30.12.2024Bars Kazan — Cherepovets2:3
- 23.11.2024Cherepovets — Bars Kazan7:5
- 05.12.2023Cherepovets — Bars Kazan4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 14 | 11 | +15 | 22 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Cherepovets | 15 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Nizhny Novgorod | 14 | 9 | +15 | 19 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Spartak Moscow | 14 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Bars Kazan | 15 | 7 | -1 | 15 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Yekaterinburg | 13 | 6 | +2 | 14 |
Next matches
- Bars KazanSochi12 October · KHL77231The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.9
- CherepovetsSKA St. Petersburg13 October · KHL51491The most likely outcome came true: 122%2:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 3:2.5.4
KHL on the same day
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%4:3OTFinal score 4:3 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.9
- 69311The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
- 35652The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%5:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 2:4.5.0
- 53471The most likely outcome came true: 124%6:1Final score 6:1. Model's score: 2:1.4.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →