KHL · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Barys Arena
Barys Astana — Avangard Omsk
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5:1Missed
In short
Final score 5:1: the model's most likely outcome, Avangard Omsk to win (65% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 65% fails in about 35 matches out of 100 on average.
Avangard Omsk are clear favourites: 65% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 44%.
Why
- Avangard Omsk are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.2.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Barys Astana 2 wins, Avangard Omsk 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Barys Astana — Avangard Omsk | 2.1–2.9 | |
| Barys Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 35% | |
| Avangard Omsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 65% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 44% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 56% |
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- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Barys Astana
- Barys Astana goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 04.10away · Spartak Moscow4:3 SO
- 02.10away · Niznekamsk5:4 OT
- 30.09away · Bars Kazan1:4
- 27.09SKA St. Petersburg3:5
- 26.09Niznekamsk3:6
- 08.10away · Niznekamsk1:0
- 06.10away · Yekaterinburg0:4
- 02.10Lada4:1
- 28.09Magnitogorsk1:5
- 24.09away · Spartak Moscow2:1 OT
Head to head
- 30.12.2025Avangard Omsk — Barys Astana2:4
- 23.11.2025Barys Astana — Avangard Omsk2:5
- 29.10.2025Avangard Omsk — Barys Astana4:3
- 16.10.2025Barys Astana — Avangard Omsk6:2
- 31.01.2025Avangard Omsk — Barys Astana5:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Dinamo Minsk | 15 | 6 | -6 | 17 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Barys Astana | 14 | 8 | +14 | 16 |
| 14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Bars Kazan | 15 | 7 | -1 | 15 |
| 18 | Novosibirsk | 15 | 5 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 | Avangard Omsk | 13 | 6 | -12 | 12 |
| 20 | Tractor Chelyabinsk | 13 | 5 | -9 | 10 |
Next matches
- Barys AstanaNovosibirsk12 October · KHL55451The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
- Avangard OmskYekaterinburg16 October · KHL58421The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.6
KHL on the same day
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%4:3OTFinal score 4:3 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.9
- 69311The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
- 60401The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
- 53471The most likely outcome came true: 124%6:1Final score 6:1. Model's score: 2:1.4.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →