KHL · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Tatneft Arena

Bars Kazan — Cherepovets

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Model prediction and result

1:4Missed
Bars Kazan48%
Draw in regulation22%
Cherepovets30%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:4: the model's most likely outcome, Bars Kazan to win (60% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 60% fails in about 40 matches out of 100 on average.

Bars Kazan are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

  • Bars Kazan are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Bars Kazan — Cherepovets2.8–2.3
Bars Kazan to win (incl. OT and shootout)60%
Cherepovets to win (incl. OT and shootout)40%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Bars Kazan
  • Bars Kazan goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Bars Kazan

  • 05.10Lokomotiv Yaroslavl0:2
  • 02.10Tractor Chelyabinsk2:3
  • 30.09Barys Astana4:1
  • 26.09away · Magnitogorsk1:2
  • 24.09away · Novosibirsk3:2 SO

Cherepovets

  • 08.10away · Nizhny Novgorod3:2
  • 06.10away · SKA St. Petersburg5:2
  • 03.10Shanghai2:1 OT
  • 01.10Vladivostok3:4 SO
  • 26.09Sochi3:1

Head to head

  • 16.03.2026Cherepovets — Bars Kazan4:2
  • 30.12.2025Bars Kazan — Cherepovets4:3 SO
  • 30.12.2024Bars Kazan — Cherepovets2:3
  • 23.11.2024Cherepovets — Bars Kazan7:5
  • 05.12.2023Cherepovets — Bars Kazan4:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceLokomotiv Yaroslavl14110338–23+1522
4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCherepovets1592435–31+420
5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNizhny Novgorod1491440–25+1519
13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSpartak Moscow1472536–28+816
14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBars Kazan1571734–35-115
15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceYekaterinburg1362534–32+214

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Bars KazanSochi12 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.9
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 2:0. Model's score: 3:2.5.4

KHL on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →