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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

Brynas — Rogle

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Model prediction for 24 October

Brynas41%
Draw in regulation23%
Rogle36%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Brynas 52%, Rogle 48% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Brynas — Rogle2.5–2.4
Brynas to win (incl. OT and shootout)52%
Rogle to win (incl. OT and shootout)48%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Brynas
  • Brynas goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Brynas

  • 10.10away · HV 712:3
  • 08.10IF Bjorkloven4:1
  • 03.10away · Malmo0:1
  • 01.10away · Frolunda1:2
  • 29.09Timra1:0

Rogle

  • 10.10away · Skelleftea2:3
  • 08.10HV 714:3
  • 03.10away · Vaxjo2:3
  • 01.10Timra4:1
  • 26.09Linkoping2:1 OT

Head to head

  • 26.02.2026Brynas — Rogle2:1 SO
  • 18.12.2025Rogle — Brynas2:3 SO
  • 22.11.2025Brynas — Rogle3:2 OT
  • 27.09.2025Rogle — Brynas4:3
  • 06.03.2025Rogle — Brynas2:1

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsSkelleftea8411228–21+715
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsBrynas8400423–18+512
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsRogle8310420–18+211
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsOrebro8302318–22-411

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • IF BjorklovenSkellefteapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.2
  • LinkopingOrebropreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • MalmoTimrapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:24.9
  • FarjestadVaxjopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.2
  • HV 71Frolundapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
  • LuleaDjurgardenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →