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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

Malmo — Timra

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Model prediction for 24 October

Malmo42%
Draw in regulation22%
Timra35%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Malmo are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Malmo — Timra2.5–2.4
Malmo to win (incl. OT and shootout)54%
Timra to win (incl. OT and shootout)46%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Malmo
  • Malmo goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Malmo

  • 10.10away · Farjestad2:6
  • 08.10away · Lulea3:2
  • 03.10Brynas1:0
  • 01.10away · Skelleftea3:4 OT
  • 26.09Frolunda1:2

Timra

  • 10.10away · Lulea3:2 OT
  • 08.10Frolunda4:1
  • 03.10Skelleftea1:4
  • 01.10away · Rogle1:4
  • 29.09away · Brynas0:1

Head to head

  • 19.02.2026Timra — Malmo5:2
  • 27.01.2026Timra — Malmo2:3
  • 30.10.2025Malmo — Timra2:1
  • 11.10.2025Malmo — Timra1:2
  • 15.02.2025Malmo — Timra3:1

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsOrebro8302318–22-411
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMalmo7212218–22-410
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLulea8301420–26-610
12HV 718121424–29-58
13, Relegation play-offTimra8120515–22-77
14, Relegation play-offLinkoping7201412–23-117

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • IF BjorklovenSkellefteapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.2
  • LinkopingOrebropreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • BrynasRoglepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.8
  • FarjestadVaxjopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.2
  • HV 71Frolundapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
  • LuleaDjurgardenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →