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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

Farjestad — Vaxjo

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Model prediction for 24 October

Farjestad55%
Draw in regulation20%
Vaxjo24%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Farjestad are clear favourites: 68% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 47%.

Why

  • Farjestad are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Farjestad — Vaxjo3.1–2.1
Farjestad to win (incl. OT and shootout)68%
Vaxjo to win (incl. OT and shootout)32%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)47%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Farjestad
  • Farjestad goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Farjestad

  • 10.10Malmo6:2
  • 08.10away · Skelleftea5:1
  • 03.10HV 713:1
  • 01.10away · Djurgarden4:0
  • 26.09away · IF Bjorkloven5:0

Vaxjo

  • 10.10away · Orebro2:4
  • 08.10Linkoping0:3
  • 03.10Rogle3:2
  • 01.10away · IF Bjorkloven2:4
  • 26.09HV 717:5

Head to head

  • 28.02.2026Farjestad — Vaxjo7:1
  • 08.01.2026Vaxjo — Farjestad4:3 OT
  • 29.11.2025Vaxjo — Farjestad4:3 SO
  • 27.09.2025Farjestad — Vaxjo2:4
  • 13.02.2025Farjestad — Vaxjo3:6

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFarjestad8701034–8+2622
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFrolunda8510226–20+617
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLulea8301420–26-610
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsVaxjo8211425–30-59
11Djurgarden8211416–22-69

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • IF BjorklovenSkellefteapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.2
  • LinkopingOrebropreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • MalmoTimrapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:24.9
  • BrynasRoglepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.8
  • HV 71Frolundapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
  • LuleaDjurgardenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →