NHL · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres — Minnesota Wild
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:2 OTCame true
In short
Final score 3:2 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Buffalo Sabres to win (51% incl. overtime), came true.
Close to a coin flip: Buffalo Sabres 51%, Minnesota Wild 49% including overtime.
5.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 59%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.9 and 2.9.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Buffalo Sabres — Minnesota Wild | 2.9–2.9 | |
| Buffalo Sabres to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 51% | |
| Minnesota Wild to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 49% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 59% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Buffalo Sabres
- Buffalo Sabres goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 04.10Chicago Blackhawks4:3
- 02.10away · Columbus Blue Jackets3:6
- 19.05Montreal Canadiens2:3 OT
- 17.05away · Montreal Canadiens8:3
- 15.05Montreal Canadiens3:6
- 04.10Boston Bruins4:1
- 02.10away · Nashville Predators3:1
- 14.05away · Colorado Avalanche3:4 OT
- 12.05Colorado Avalanche2:5
- 10.05Colorado Avalanche5:1
Head to head
- 17.01.2026Buffalo Sabres — Minnesota Wild4:5 OT
- 30.11.2025Minnesota Wild — Buffalo Sabres2:3 SO
- 22.03.2025Minnesota Wild — Buffalo Sabres4:1
- 28.11.2024Buffalo Sabres — Minnesota Wild0:1
- 18.02.2024Minnesota Wild — Buffalo Sabres2:3 OT
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Ottawa Senators | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 9, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Minnesota Wild | 7 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 10, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Winnipeg Jets | 6 | 4 | +1 | 9 |
| 18 | Montreal Canadiens | 6 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 19 | Buffalo Sabres | 7 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 20 | New York Islanders | 6 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
Next matches
- Buffalo SabresDallas Stars9 October · NHL50501The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%0:4Final score 0:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- Tampa Bay LightningMinnesota Wild9 October · NHL54461The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
NHL on the same day
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 123%5:3Final score 5:3. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- 43572The most likely outcome came true: 223%4:6Final score 4:6. Model's score: 1:4.5.5
- 45552The most likely outcome came true: 224%3:5Final score 3:5. Model's score: 1:4.5.3
- 53471The most likely outcome came true: 123%5:4OTFinal score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 5:2.5.6
- 57431The most likely outcome came true: 124%5:2Final score 5:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.3
- 41592The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%4:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 1:4.5.2
- 42582The most likely outcome came true: 223%2:6Final score 2:6. Model's score: 1:4.5.3
- 52481The most likely outcome did not happen: 124%1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →