NHL · Friday, 9 October, MSK · KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres — Dallas Stars
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0:4Missed
In short
Final score 0:4: the model's most likely outcome, Buffalo Sabres to win (50% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 50% fails in about 50 matches out of 100 on average.
Close to a coin flip: Buffalo Sabres 50%, Dallas Stars 50% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 53%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.8 and 2.7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Buffalo Sabres — Dallas Stars | 2.8–2.7 | |
| Buffalo Sabres to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 50% | |
| Dallas Stars to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 50% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 53% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Buffalo Sabres
- Buffalo Sabres goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 07.10Minnesota Wild3:2 OT
- 04.10Chicago Blackhawks4:3
- 02.10away · Columbus Blue Jackets3:6
- 19.05Montreal Canadiens2:3 OT
- 17.05away · Montreal Canadiens8:3
- 06.10San Jose Sharks5:0
- 04.10away · Nashville Predators1:2
- 03.10St. Louis Blues0:4
- 01.05away · Minnesota Wild2:5
- 29.04Minnesota Wild2:4
Head to head
- 16.04.2026Buffalo Sabres — Dallas Stars3:4 SO
- 01.01.2026Dallas Stars — Buffalo Sabres1:4
- 01.01.2025Dallas Stars — Buffalo Sabres4:2
- 23.10.2024Buffalo Sabres — Dallas Stars4:2
- 10.04.2024Dallas Stars — Buffalo Sabres3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Montreal Canadiens | 6 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 19 | Buffalo Sabres | 7 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 20 | New York Islanders | 6 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 24 | San Jose Sharks | 6 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 25 | Dallas Stars | 6 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 26 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 5 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
Next matches
- Buffalo SabresUtah Mammoth11 October · NHL50502The most likely outcome came true: 223%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:5.5.8
- Pittsburgh PenguinsDallas Stars11 October · NHL41592The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%2:1SOFinal score 2:1 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:5.6.0
NHL on the same day
- 47532The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%6:1Final score 6:1. Model's score: 1:4.5.6
- 71291The most likely outcome came true: 120%7:2Final score 7:2. Model's score: 5:2.5.9
- 56441The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 5:2.5.7
- 63371The most likely outcome came true: 123%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.1
- 54461The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- 64361The most likely outcome came true: 123%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.2
- 60401The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%2:3OTFinal score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
- 36642The most likely outcome came true: 223%3:7Final score 3:7. Model's score: 1:4.5.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →