VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Sunday, 25 October, MSK

Chelmet Chelyabinsk — Krasnoyarsk

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Model prediction for 25 October

Chelmet Chelyabinsk50%
Draw in regulation22%
Krasnoyarsk28%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Chelmet Chelyabinsk are clear favourites: 63% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.

Why

  • Chelmet Chelyabinsk are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

  • League table: Chelmet Chelyabinsk — No. 30, 8 pts; Krasnoyarsk — No. 29, 8 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Chelmet Chelyabinsk 1 win, Krasnoyarsk 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Chelmet Chelyabinsk — Krasnoyarsk2.8–2.2
Chelmet Chelyabinsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)63%
Krasnoyarsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)37%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)42%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)57%

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Form

Chelmet Chelyabinsk

  • 12.10away · Ryazan0:8
  • 04.10Bars3:4
  • 02.10Almetyevsk4:2
  • 30.09CSK VVS4:5 OT
  • 24.09away · Khimik0:6

Krasnoyarsk

  • 13.10Toros Neftekamsk2:0
  • 11.10Izhevsk3:2
  • 09.10Olympia3:4
  • 03.10away · Kristall Saratov2:3
  • 01.10away · Dizel0:2

Head to head

  • 31.01.2026Krasnoyarsk — Chelmet Chelyabinsk3:1
  • 18.10.2025Chelmet Chelyabinsk — Krasnoyarsk2:3
  • 18.03.2025Chelmet Chelyabinsk — Krasnoyarsk7:0
  • 11.09.2024Krasnoyarsk — Chelmet Chelyabinsk4:3
  • 12.12.2023Krasnoyarsk — Chelmet Chelyabinsk6:1

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
28Izhevsk1332829–40-118
29Krasnoyarsk14401023–36-138
30Chelmet Chelyabinsk1132620–44-248

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →