AHL (American Hockey League) · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

Coachella Valley Firebirds — San Jose Barracuda

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Model prediction for 24 October

Coachella Valley Firebirds45%
Draw in regulation20%
San Jose Barracuda35%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Coachella Valley Firebirds are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.

6.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 62%.

Why

  • Coachella Valley Firebirds are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.9.

Facts

  • League table: Coachella Valley Firebirds — No. 10, 6 pts; San Jose Barracuda — No. 28, 2 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Coachella Valley Firebirds 3 wins, San Jose Barracuda 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Coachella Valley Firebirds — San Jose Barracuda3.2–2.9
Coachella Valley Firebirds to win (incl. OT and shootout)56%
San Jose Barracuda to win (incl. OT and shootout)44%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)62%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)38%

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Form

Coachella Valley Firebirds

  • 12.10Ontario Reign2:3 OT
  • 10.10San Diego Gulls6:3
  • 04.10away · Ontario Reign6:2
  • 03.10Ontario Reign5:6 OT
  • 21.05away · Colorado Eagles2:3

San Jose Barracuda

  • 11.10Tucson Roadrunners1:4
  • 10.10Tucson Roadrunners4:7
  • 05.10San Diego Gulls5:4 OT
  • 04.10San Diego Gulls1:5
  • 25.04away · Henderson Silver Knights1:5

Head to head

  • 15.04.2026San Jose Barracuda — Coachella Valley Firebirds1:4
  • 30.03.2026Coachella Valley Firebirds — San Jose Barracuda4:1
  • 29.03.2026Coachella Valley Firebirds — San Jose Barracuda4:2
  • 18.03.2026San Jose Barracuda — Coachella Valley Firebirds5:1
  • 05.02.2026San Jose Barracuda — Coachella Valley Firebirds2:1

Full record: 24 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−PtsP%
9Cleveland Monsters430117–15+26.750
10Coachella Valley Firebirds422019–14+56.750
11Grand Rapids Griffins531117–13+47.700
27Henderson Silver Knights31025–8-32.333
28San Jose Barracuda410311–20-92.250
29Syracuse Crunch41036–16-102.250

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss, ranked by points percentage

Full table

AHL on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →