NHL · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Colorado Avalanche — Tampa Bay Lightning
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Colorado Avalanche are favourites: 59% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 56%.
Why
- Colorado Avalanche are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.6.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Colorado Avalanche — Tampa Bay Lightning | 3.1–2.5 | |
| Colorado Avalanche to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 59% | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 41% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 56% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Colorado Avalanche
- Colorado Avalanche goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 14.10away · Dallas Stars3:2
- 11.10Toronto Maple Leafs3:6
- 09.10away · Calgary Flames7:3
- 08.10away · Winnipeg Jets2:3
- 04.10St. Louis Blues6:1
- 14.10away · New York Rangers1:4
- 11.10away · New York Islanders5:3
- 09.10Minnesota Wild3:2
- 06.10Philadelphia Flyers4:1
- 04.10Washington Capitals3:1
Head to head
- 07.01.2026Tampa Bay Lightning — Colorado Avalanche4:2
- 05.11.2025Colorado Avalanche — Tampa Bay Lightning3:2
- 26.11.2024Tampa Bay Lightning — Colorado Avalanche8:2
- 31.10.2024Colorado Avalanche — Tampa Bay Lightning2:5
- 16.02.2024Tampa Bay Lightning — Colorado Avalanche6:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Winnipeg Jets | 6 | 4 | +1 | 9 |
| 11, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Colorado Avalanche | 6 | 4 | +10 | 8 |
| 12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Anaheim Ducks | 6 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Tampa Bay Lightning | 6 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Florida Panthers | 7 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
NHL on the same day
- Chicago BlackhawksMontreal Canadienspreliminary38622The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.4
- Philadelphia FlyersAnaheim Duckspreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.3
- New Jersey DevilsLos Angeles Kingspreliminary49512The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →