NHL · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche — Toronto Maple Leafs
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3:6Missed
In short
Final score 3:6: the model's most likely outcome, Colorado Avalanche to win (71% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 71% fails in about 29 matches out of 100 on average.
Colorado Avalanche are clear favourites: 71% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 62%.
Why
- Colorado Avalanche are more dangerous in attack: 3.6 expected goals against 2.4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Colorado Avalanche — Toronto Maple Leafs | 3.6–2.4 | |
| Colorado Avalanche to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 71% | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 29% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 62% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 38% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Colorado Avalanche
- Colorado Avalanche goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Calgary Flames7:3
- 08.10away · Winnipeg Jets2:3
- 04.10St. Louis Blues6:1
- 01.10Los Angeles Kings8:4
- 27.05away · Vegas Golden Knights1:2
- 09.10away · Vegas Golden Knights3:4 SO
- 07.10Nashville Predators5:4 OT
- 04.10Ottawa Senators2:3
- 01.10New York Islanders2:1
- 30.09Montreal Canadiens2:3
Head to head
- 25.01.2026Toronto Maple Leafs — Colorado Avalanche1:4
- 13.01.2026Colorado Avalanche — Toronto Maple Leafs3:4 OT
- 20.03.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — Colorado Avalanche2:1
- 09.03.2025Colorado Avalanche — Toronto Maple Leafs7:4
- 25.02.2024Colorado Avalanche — Toronto Maple Leafs3:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Pittsburgh Penguins | 6 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 13, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 6 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 14, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Winnipeg Jets | 5 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Colorado Avalanche | 5 | 3 | +9 | 6 |
| 16, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Washington Capitals | 5 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
Next matches
- Dallas StarsColorado Avalanche14 October · NHL44562The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.5
- Utah MammothToronto Maple Leafs14 October · NHL62381The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 5:25.9
NHL on the same day
- 51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 124%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
- 50502The most likely outcome came true: 223%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:5.5.8
- 29712The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 1:4.5.4
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%1:0SOFinal score 1:0 in a shootout. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 63371The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:2SOFinal score 3:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
- 41592The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%2:1SOFinal score 2:1 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:5.6.0
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 123%5:3Final score 5:3. Model's score: 5:2.5.7
- 47532The most likely outcome came true: 224%3:5Final score 3:5. Model's score: 1:4.5.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →