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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Thursday, 8 October, MSK

CSK VVS — Zvezda Moscow

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Model prediction and result

2:3Missed
CSK VVS42%
Draw in regulation23%
Zvezda Moscow35%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, CSK VVS to win (53% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 53% fails in about 47 matches out of 100 on average.

CSK VVS are favourites: 53% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 37%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.3.

Facts

  • Zvezda Moscow: 4 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: CSK VVS 1 win, Zvezda Moscow 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: CSK VVS — Zvezda Moscow2.4–2.3
CSK VVS to win (incl. OT and shootout)53%
Zvezda Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout)47%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)37%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)63%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap CSK VVS
  • CSK VVS goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

CSK VVS

  • 06.10Khimik2:8
  • 02.10away · Gornyak2:5
  • 30.09away · Chelmet Chelyabinsk5:4 OT
  • 28.09away · Magnitka Magnitogorsk0:3
  • 26.09away · Orsk0:3

Zvezda Moscow

  • 02.10Dinamo St. Petersburg2:4
  • 30.09SKA-VMF St. Petersburg1:3
  • 24.09Gornyak2:3
  • 22.09Chelmet Chelyabinsk1:2
  • 20.09Magnitka Magnitogorsk4:2

Head to head

  • 03.03.2026Zvezda Moscow — CSK VVS5:0
  • 13.09.2025CSK VVS — Zvezda Moscow1:3
  • 02.02.2025Zvezda Moscow — CSK VVS1:3
  • 20.10.2024CSK VVS — Zvezda Moscow0:4
  • 08.01.2024Zvezda Moscow — CSK VVS5:3

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
24Olympia1451837–42-511
25Zvezda Moscow1451833–45-1211
26Kurgan1234519–33-1410
27CSK VVS16411131–56-259
28Izhevsk1332829–40-118

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • CSK VVSDinamo St. Petersburg10 October · VHL
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 3:5. Model's score: 2:3.5.3
  • AlmetyevskZvezda Moscow10 October · VHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%Final score 3:5. Model's score: 3:1.5.1

VHL on the same day

  • AlmetyevskKhimik
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:2, exactly right.5.1
  • RyazanOrsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 125%Final score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 2:1.3.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →