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KHL · Monday, 5 October, MSK · CSKA Arena

CSKA Moscow — Salavat Ufa

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Model prediction and result

3:1Came true
CSKA Moscow45%
Draw in regulation24%
Salavat Ufa31%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, CSKA Moscow to win (58% incl. overtime), came true.

CSKA Moscow are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.2 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 29%.

Why

  • CSKA Moscow are more dangerous in attack: 2.3 expected goals against 1.9.

Probabilities

Expected goals: CSKA Moscow — Salavat Ufa2.3–1.9
CSKA Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout)58%
Salavat Ufa to win (incl. OT and shootout)42%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)29%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)71%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap CSKA Moscow
  • CSKA Moscow goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

CSKA Moscow

  • 03.10Dynamo Moscow4:3 SO
  • 01.10away · Dinamo Minsk4:1
  • 29.09SKA St. Petersburg6:5
  • 25.09away · Lada5:0
  • 23.09away · Khabarovsk2:0

Salavat Ufa

  • 02.10Novosibirsk2:4
  • 30.09away · Sochi3:6
  • 28.09away · Nizhny Novgorod3:0
  • 26.09away · Dynamo Moscow3:1
  • 23.09Magnitogorsk3:4

Head to head

  • 07.12.2025Salavat Ufa — CSKA Moscow1:3
  • 01.12.2025CSKA Moscow — Salavat Ufa2:3 SO
  • 23.02.2025Salavat Ufa — CSKA Moscow2:4
  • 08.10.2024CSKA Moscow — Salavat Ufa2:0
  • 06.02.2024Salavat Ufa — CSKA Moscow2:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceMagnitogorsk16121351–30+2125
2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCSKA Moscow14110349–27+2222
3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceLokomotiv Yaroslavl14110338–23+1522
9, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceKhabarovsk1481523–20+317
10, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSalavat Ufa1581646–47-117
11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceDinamo Minsk1565442–48-617

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • NovosibirskSalavat Ufa7 October · KHL
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 1:3.4.6
  • Dynamo MoscowCSKA Moscow9 October · KHL
    2The most likely outcome came true: 224%Final score 2:5. Model's score: 1:2.4.1

KHL on the same day

  • MagnitogorskVladivostok
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%Final score 2:5. Model's score: 4:1.5.3
  • LadaShanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 0:5. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
  • Bars KazanLokomotiv Yaroslavl
    2The most likely outcome came true: 225%Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.3.9
  • Dinamo MinskNizhny Novgorod
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 1:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:2.5.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →