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KHL · Tuesday, 29 September, MSK · CSKA Arena

CSKA Moscow — SKA St. Petersburg

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Model prediction and result

6:5Came true
CSKA Moscow41%
Draw in regulation23%
SKA St. Petersburg36%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 6:5: the model's most likely outcome, CSKA Moscow to win (53% incl. overtime), came true.

Close to a coin flip: CSKA Moscow 53%, SKA St. Petersburg 47% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.7 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 37%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.3.

Facts

  • CSKA Moscow: 5 wins in a row; SKA St. Petersburg: 4 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: CSKA Moscow 4 wins, SKA St. Petersburg 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: CSKA Moscow — SKA St. Petersburg2.4–2.3
CSKA Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout)53%
SKA St. Petersburg to win (incl. OT and shootout)47%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)37%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)63%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap CSKA Moscow
  • CSKA Moscow goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

CSKA Moscow

  • 25.09away · Lada5:0
  • 23.09away · Khabarovsk2:0
  • 21.09away · Vladivostok4:3 SO
  • 18.09away · Nizhny Novgorod3:2
  • 16.09away · Sochi4:0

SKA St. Petersburg

  • 27.09away · Barys Astana5:3
  • 25.09away · Tractor Chelyabinsk4:3
  • 15.09Shanghai7:2
  • 12.09away · Sochi1:0
  • 10.09away · Spartak Moscow1:3

Head to head

  • 31.03.2026CSKA Moscow — SKA St. Petersburg6:2
  • 29.03.2026SKA St. Petersburg — CSKA Moscow2:4
  • 27.03.2026SKA St. Petersburg — CSKA Moscow1:0
  • 25.03.2026CSKA Moscow — SKA St. Petersburg4:2
  • 23.03.2026CSKA Moscow — SKA St. Petersburg3:2 OT

Full record: 108 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceMagnitogorsk16121351–30+2125
2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCSKA Moscow14110349–27+2222
3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceLokomotiv Yaroslavl14110338–23+1522
8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceShanghai1281336–29+717
9, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSKA St. Petersburg1481547–44+317
10, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceKhabarovsk1581624–22+217

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Dinamo MinskCSKA Moscow1 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:4. Model's score: 4:1.4.8
  • SKA St. PetersburgVladivostok3 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 119%Final score 6:5 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:1.5.4

KHL on the same day

  • KhabarovskNiznekamsk
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.4.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →