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KHL · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · Ice Palace

SKA St. Petersburg — Vladivostok

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Model prediction and result

6:5 SOCame true
SKA St. Petersburg58%
Draw in regulation19%
Vladivostok22%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 6:5 SO: the model's most likely outcome, SKA St. Petersburg to win (70% incl. overtime), came true.

SKA St. Petersburg are clear favourites: 70% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 50%.

Why

  • SKA St. Petersburg are more dangerous in attack: 3.3 expected goals against 2.1.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: SKA St. Petersburg 4 wins, Vladivostok 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: SKA St. Petersburg — Vladivostok3.3–2.1
SKA St. Petersburg to win (incl. OT and shootout)70%
Vladivostok to win (incl. OT and shootout)30%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)50%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap SKA St. Petersburg
  • SKA St. Petersburg goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

SKA St. Petersburg

  • 29.09away · CSKA Moscow5:6
  • 27.09away · Barys Astana5:3
  • 25.09away · Tractor Chelyabinsk4:3
  • 15.09Shanghai7:2
  • 12.09away · Sochi1:0

Vladivostok

  • 01.10away · Cherepovets4:3 SO
  • 27.09Niznekamsk3:5
  • 23.09Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:2
  • 21.09CSKA Moscow3:4 SO
  • 19.09Cherepovets2:0

Head to head

  • 24.02.2026SKA St. Petersburg — Vladivostok4:2
  • 04.12.2025Vladivostok — SKA St. Petersburg1:3
  • 21.12.2024SKA St. Petersburg — Vladivostok3:2 OT
  • 28.11.2024Vladivostok — SKA St. Petersburg3:2 SO
  • 16.10.2023SKA St. Petersburg — Vladivostok5:0

Full record: 24 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceShanghai1281336–29+717
9, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSKA St. Petersburg1481547–44+317
10, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceKhabarovsk1581624–22+217
16Dynamo Moscow1662833–46-1314
17, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceVladivostok1453635–39-413
18Novosibirsk1553733–45-1213

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • MagnitogorskVladivostok5 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%Final score 2:5. Model's score: 4:1.5.3
  • SKA St. PetersburgCherepovets6 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:5. Model's score: 3:2.5.3

KHL on the same day

  • CherepovetsShanghai
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 2:1 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
  • CSKA MoscowDynamo Moscow
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:1.4.2
  • Dinamo MinskLokomotiv Yaroslavl
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 2:1.4.3
  • SochiNizhny Novgorod
    2The most likely outcome came true: 220%Final score 0:6. Model's score: 1:4.5.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →