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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 17 October, MSK

Djurgarden — Malmo

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Model prediction for 17 October

Djurgarden39%
Draw in regulation22%
Malmo38%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Close to a coin flip: Djurgarden 50%, Malmo 50% including overtime.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 44%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Djurgarden — Malmo2.5–2.5
Djurgarden to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Malmo to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)44%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Djurgarden
  • Djurgarden goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Djurgarden

  • 10.10Linkoping5:1
  • 08.10Orebro2:1
  • 03.10away · Frolunda2:4
  • 01.10Farjestad0:4
  • 26.09away · Timra2:3 OT

Malmo

  • 10.10away · Farjestad2:6
  • 08.10away · Lulea3:2
  • 03.10Brynas1:0
  • 01.10away · Skelleftea3:4 OT
  • 26.09Frolunda1:2

Head to head

  • 21.03.2026Malmo — Djurgarden3:1
  • 19.03.2026Malmo — Djurgarden2:1
  • 17.03.2026Djurgarden — Malmo3:2 OT
  • 31.01.2026Malmo — Djurgarden2:5
  • 24.01.2026Djurgarden — Malmo0:1

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsOrebro8302318–22-411
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMalmo7212218–22-410
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLulea8301420–26-610
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsVaxjo8211425–30-59
11Djurgarden8211416–22-69
12HV 718121424–29-58

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • FrolundaSkelleftea
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.8
  • LinkopingFarjestad
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:44.9
  • LuleaHV 71
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.1
  • RogleOrebro
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • BrynasVaxjo
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.2
  • TimraIF Bjorkloven
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:24.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →