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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 17 October, MSK

Brynas — Vaxjo

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Model prediction for 17 October

Brynas49%
Draw in regulation21%
Vaxjo30%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Brynas are favourites: 61% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

  • Brynas are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Brynas — Vaxjo2.9–2.3
Brynas to win (incl. OT and shootout)61%
Vaxjo to win (incl. OT and shootout)39%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)54%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Brynas
  • Brynas goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Brynas

  • 10.10away · HV 712:3
  • 08.10IF Bjorkloven4:1
  • 03.10away · Malmo0:1
  • 01.10away · Frolunda1:2
  • 29.09Timra1:0

Vaxjo

  • 10.10away · Orebro2:4
  • 08.10Linkoping0:3
  • 03.10Rogle3:2
  • 01.10away · IF Bjorkloven2:4
  • 26.09HV 717:5

Head to head

  • 01.04.2026Vaxjo — Brynas2:1
  • 30.03.2026Brynas — Vaxjo2:3
  • 28.03.2026Brynas — Vaxjo3:2 OT
  • 26.03.2026Vaxjo — Brynas6:4
  • 24.03.2026Vaxjo — Brynas6:2

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsSkelleftea8411228–21+715
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsBrynas8400423–18+512
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsRogle8310420–18+211
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLulea8301420–26-610
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsVaxjo8211425–30-59
11Djurgarden8211416–22-69

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • DjurgardenMalmo
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.0
  • FrolundaSkelleftea
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.8
  • LinkopingFarjestad
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:44.9
  • LuleaHV 71
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.1
  • RogleOrebro
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • TimraIF Bjorkloven
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:24.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →