KHL · Monday, 28 September, MSK · VTB Arena
Dynamo Moscow — Tractor Chelyabinsk
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:2 OTMissed
In short
Final score 1:2 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Dynamo Moscow to win (52% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 52% fails in about 48 matches out of 100 on average.
Close to a coin flip: Dynamo Moscow 52%, Tractor Chelyabinsk 48% including overtime.
5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Dynamo Moscow — Tractor Chelyabinsk | 2.5–2.4 | |
| Dynamo Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 52% | |
| Tractor Chelyabinsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 48% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 42% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 58% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Dynamo Moscow
- Dynamo Moscow goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 26.09Salavat Ufa1:3
- 24.09Dinamo Minsk4:3 OT
- 22.09Barys Astana1:4
- 19.09away · Khabarovsk0:4
- 17.09away · Vladivostok3:2
- 25.09SKA St. Petersburg3:4
- 20.09Avangard Omsk2:1
- 18.09Spartak Moscow1:3
- 15.09Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:4
- 09.09away · Bars Kazan1:2
Head to head
- 07.12.2025Tractor Chelyabinsk — Dynamo Moscow4:8
- 02.10.2025Dynamo Moscow — Tractor Chelyabinsk3:2 SO
- 06.05.2025Tractor Chelyabinsk — Dynamo Moscow4:3
- 04.05.2025Dynamo Moscow — Tractor Chelyabinsk3:1
- 02.05.2025Dynamo Moscow — Tractor Chelyabinsk2:3 OT
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Yekaterinburg | 13 | 6 | +2 | 14 |
| 16 | Dynamo Moscow | 16 | 6 | -13 | 14 |
| 17, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Vladivostok | 14 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 19 | Avangard Omsk | 13 | 6 | -12 | 12 |
| 20 | Tractor Chelyabinsk | 13 | 5 | -9 | 10 |
| 21 | Sochi | 14 | 3 | -30 | 6 |
Next matches
- Spartak MoscowTractor Chelyabinsk30 September · KHL54461The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%2:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.6
- Dynamo MoscowNizhny Novgorod1 October · KHL58421The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%1:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 4:1.4.8
KHL on the same day
- 51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%1:5Final score 1:5. Model's score: 4:1.5.2
- 82181The most likely outcome came true: 115%5:4Final score 5:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.7
- 49512The most likely outcome came true: 222%0:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 2:3.4.9
- 62381The most likely outcome came true: 120%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →