KHL · Thursday, 1 October, MSK · VTB Arena
Dynamo Moscow — Nizhny Novgorod
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1:3Missed
In short
Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, Dynamo Moscow to win (58% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 58% fails in about 42 matches out of 100 on average.
Dynamo Moscow are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 38%.
Why
- Dynamo Moscow are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Dynamo Moscow — Nizhny Novgorod | 2.6–2.2 | |
| Dynamo Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 58% | |
| Nizhny Novgorod to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 42% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 38% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 62% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Dynamo Moscow
- Dynamo Moscow goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 28.09Tractor Chelyabinsk1:2 OT
- 26.09Salavat Ufa1:3
- 24.09Dinamo Minsk4:3 OT
- 22.09Barys Astana1:4
- 19.09away · Khabarovsk0:4
- 28.09Salavat Ufa0:3
- 24.09Sochi3:0
- 22.09Avangard Omsk5:1
- 18.09CSKA Moscow2:3
- 14.09Bars Kazan3:2
Head to head
- 15.02.2026Nizhny Novgorod — Dynamo Moscow2:4
- 12.01.2026Dynamo Moscow — Nizhny Novgorod3:4 OT
- 01.12.2025Dynamo Moscow — Nizhny Novgorod4:0
- 05.10.2025Nizhny Novgorod — Dynamo Moscow1:4
- 30.01.2025Dynamo Moscow — Nizhny Novgorod4:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Cherepovets | 15 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Nizhny Novgorod | 14 | 9 | +15 | 19 |
| 6, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Niznekamsk | 15 | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Yekaterinburg | 13 | 6 | +2 | 14 |
| 16 | Dynamo Moscow | 16 | 6 | -13 | 14 |
| 17, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Vladivostok | 14 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
Next matches
- CSKA MoscowDynamo Moscow3 October · KHL59411The most likely outcome came true: 123%4:3SOFinal score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:1.4.2
- SochiNizhny Novgorod3 October · KHL32682The most likely outcome came true: 220%0:6Final score 0:6. Model's score: 1:4.5.3
KHL on the same day
- 61391The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%3:4SOFinal score 3:4 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
- 58421The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 4:1.4.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →