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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Löfbergs Arena

Farjestad — Malmo

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Model prediction and result

6:2Came true
Farjestad58%
Draw in regulation20%
Malmo22%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 6:2: the model's most likely outcome, Farjestad to win (70% incl. overtime), came true.

Farjestad are clear favourites: 70% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 47%.

Why

  • Farjestad are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Farjestad — Malmo3.1–2.1
Farjestad to win (incl. OT and shootout)70%
Malmo to win (incl. OT and shootout)30%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)47%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Farjestad
  • Farjestad goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Farjestad

  • 08.10away · Skelleftea5:1
  • 03.10HV 713:1
  • 01.10away · Djurgarden4:0
  • 26.09away · IF Bjorkloven5:0
  • 24.09Rogle2:1

Malmo

  • 08.10away · Lulea3:2
  • 03.10Brynas1:0
  • 01.10away · Skelleftea3:4 OT
  • 26.09Frolunda1:2
  • 22.09away · Vaxjo3:4 OT

Head to head

  • 05.03.2026Malmo — Farjestad2:1 OT
  • 06.01.2026Malmo — Farjestad2:1
  • 27.11.2025Farjestad — Malmo2:3
  • 16.09.2025Farjestad — Malmo6:2
  • 25.02.2025Malmo — Farjestad3:5

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFarjestad8701034–8+2622
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFrolunda8510226–20+617
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsOrebro8302318–22-411
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMalmo7212218–22-410
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLulea8301420–26-610

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • FarjestadLulea15 October · SHL
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:15.0
  • MalmoOrebro15 October · SHL
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.0

SHL on the same day

  • HV 71Brynas
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:3.5.5
  • LuleaTimra
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • DjurgardenLinkoping
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 5:1. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • IF BjorklovenFrolunda
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 1:3.4.8
  • OrebroVaxjo
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 4:2. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
  • SkellefteaRogle
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →