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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Coop Norrbotten Arena

Lulea — Timra

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Model prediction and result

2:3 OTMissed
Lulea44%
Draw in regulation23%
Timra33%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:3 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Lulea to win (56% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 56% fails in about 44 matches out of 100 on average.

Lulea are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.7 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 37%.

Why

  • Lulea are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lulea — Timra2.5–2.2
Lulea to win (incl. OT and shootout)56%
Timra to win (incl. OT and shootout)44%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)37%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)63%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Lulea
  • Lulea goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Lulea

  • 08.10Malmo2:3
  • 03.10away · Orebro4:1
  • 01.10away · Linkoping2:0
  • 29.09away · Skelleftea1:6
  • 26.09away · Brynas2:4

Timra

  • 08.10Frolunda4:1
  • 03.10Skelleftea1:4
  • 01.10away · Rogle1:4
  • 29.09away · Brynas0:1
  • 26.09Djurgarden3:2 OT

Head to head

  • 26.02.2026Lulea — Timra7:3
  • 28.12.2025Lulea — Timra5:1
  • 29.11.2025Timra — Lulea3:2
  • 04.10.2025Timra — Lulea2:1
  • 01.02.2025Timra — Lulea2:5

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMalmo7212218–22-410
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLulea8301420–26-610
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsVaxjo8211425–30-59
12HV 718121424–29-58
13, Relegation play-offTimra8120515–22-77
14, Relegation play-offLinkoping7201412–23-117

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • FarjestadLulea15 October · SHL
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:15.0
  • TimraHV 7115 October · SHL
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.1

SHL on the same day

  • FarjestadMalmo
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 6:2. Model's score: 3:1.5.2
  • HV 71Brynas
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:3.5.5
  • DjurgardenLinkoping
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 5:1. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • IF BjorklovenFrolunda
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 1:3.4.8
  • OrebroVaxjo
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 4:2. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
  • SkellefteaRogle
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →