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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Hovet

Djurgarden — Linkoping

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Model prediction and result

5:1Came true
Djurgarden40%
Draw in regulation23%
Linkoping37%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:1: the model's most likely outcome, Djurgarden to win (52% incl. overtime), came true.

Close to a coin flip: Djurgarden 52%, Linkoping 48% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.7 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 37%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Djurgarden — Linkoping2.4–2.3
Djurgarden to win (incl. OT and shootout)52%
Linkoping to win (incl. OT and shootout)48%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)37%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)63%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Djurgarden
  • Djurgarden goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Djurgarden

  • 08.10Orebro2:1
  • 03.10away · Frolunda2:4
  • 01.10Farjestad0:4
  • 26.09away · Timra2:3 OT
  • 24.09Vaxjo4:3 OT

Linkoping

  • 08.10away · Vaxjo3:0
  • 03.10IF Bjorkloven2:3
  • 01.10Lulea0:2
  • 26.09away · Rogle1:2 OT
  • 22.09Brynas2:9

Head to head

  • 07.02.2026Djurgarden — Linkoping2:1
  • 18.12.2025Linkoping — Djurgarden3:1
  • 20.11.2025Djurgarden — Linkoping3:1
  • 18.09.2025Linkoping — Djurgarden3:5

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsVaxjo8211425–30-59
11Djurgarden8211416–22-69
12HV 718121424–29-58
13, Relegation play-offTimra8120515–22-77
14, Relegation play-offLinkoping7201412–23-117

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • BrynasDjurgarden15 October · SHL
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:15.2
  • LinkopingFrolunda15 October · SHL
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.5

SHL on the same day

  • FarjestadMalmo
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 6:2. Model's score: 3:1.5.2
  • HV 71Brynas
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:3.5.5
  • LuleaTimra
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • IF BjorklovenFrolunda
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 1:3.4.8
  • OrebroVaxjo
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 4:2. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
  • SkellefteaRogle
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →