Swiss National League (hockey) · Friday, 23 October, 20:45 MSK

Fribourg — Biel

Model prediction for 23 October

Fribourg55%

Draw in regulation20%

Biel24%

Model estimate at 05:23 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Fribourg are clear favourites: 68% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 47%.

Why

Fribourg are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Fribourg — Biel		3.1–2.1
Fribourg to win (incl. OT and shootout)		68%
Biel to win (incl. OT and shootout)		32%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		47%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Fribourg
Fribourg goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Fribourg

10.10away · Zurich4:5 OT
08.10Ajoie7:2
03.10Ambri-Piotta1:2
02.10away · EHC Kloten4:1
29.09Bern5:2

Biel

10.10Lugano2:3
09.10away · Bern2:4
03.10Davos4:3
02.10away · Lausanne4:7
29.09away · Zurich3:6

Head to head

15.09.2026Biel — Fribourg4:2
17.01.2026Fribourg — Biel6:1
28.11.2025Biel — Fribourg2:3
11.10.2025Biel — Fribourg2:1 SO
13.09.2025Fribourg — Biel4:0

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Langnau Tigers	11	5	1	2	3	41–34	+7	19
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Fribourg	11	4	2	2	3	38–29	+9	18
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ajoie	11	2	4	2	3	35–38	-3	16
12	Rapperswil-Jona	11	2	2	1	6	28–42	-14	11
13, Relegation play-off	Biel	10	3	0	1	6	31–35	-4	10
14, Relegation play-off	EHC Kloten	11	2	1	1	7	23–40	-17	9

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

20:45
AjoieServettepreliminary
3763
2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.2
20:45
DavosBernpreliminary
6238
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
20:45
LuganoEHC Klotenpreliminary
7030
1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:14.9
20:45
Rapperswil-JonaAmbri-Piottapreliminary
6040
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.4
20:45
ZugLausannepreliminary
5446
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.0
20:45
ZurichLangnau Tigerspreliminary
6832
1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:15.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →