SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Tuesday, 27 October, 21:00 MSK

Frolunda — Rogle

Model prediction for 27 October

Frolunda45%

Draw in regulation23%

Rogle32%

Model estimate at 11:24 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Frolunda are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 34%.

Why

Frolunda are more dangerous in attack: 2.4 expected goals against 2.1.

Facts

League table: Frolunda — No. 2, 17 pts; Rogle — No. 6, 11 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Frolunda 2 wins, Rogle 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Frolunda — Rogle		2.4–2.1
Frolunda to win (incl. OT and shootout)		57%
Rogle to win (incl. OT and shootout)		43%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		34%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		66%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Frolunda
Frolunda goals
Overtime chance
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Form

Frolunda

10.10away · IF Bjorkloven2:3
08.10away · Timra1:4
03.10Djurgarden4:2
01.10Brynas2:1
26.09away · Malmo2:1

Rogle

10.10away · Skelleftea2:3
08.10HV 714:3
03.10away · Vaxjo2:3
01.10Timra4:1
26.09Linkoping2:1 OT

Head to head

05.03.2026Frolunda — Rogle2:3 OT
26.12.2025Rogle — Frolunda2:5
28.10.2025Rogle — Frolunda2:0
11.10.2025Frolunda — Rogle4:1
04.03.2025Frolunda — Rogle0:3

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Farjestad	8	7	0	1	0	34–8	+26	22
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Frolunda	8	5	1	0	2	26–20	+6	17
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	IF Bjorkloven	8	5	1	0	2	22–20	+2	17
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Brynas	8	4	0	0	4	23–18	+5	12
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Rogle	8	3	1	0	4	20–18	+2	11
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Orebro	8	3	0	2	3	18–22	-4	11

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

21:00
MalmoLinkopingpreliminary
6040
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →