SHL (Swedish Hockey League): 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 309 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 309 matches 10,000 times. Farjestad have the best chance to win the regular season: 78%, Skelleftea 10%.
Race for first place
| Date | Farjestad | Skelleftea | Frolunda | Rogle | Brynas | Lulea |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 September | 12% | 34% | 14% | 9% | 4% | 7% |
| 28 September | 31% | 20% | 25% | 4% | 8% | 2% |
| 5 October | 45% | 21% | 25% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 12 October | 78% | 11% | 6% | 1% | 2% | <1% |
| 13 October | 78% | 10% | 7% | 1% | 2% | <1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Incl. play-in” counts “Straight to QF” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Straight to QF | Incl. play-in | Play-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farjestad | 22 (8) | 125 | 14 | 78%▲33 | >99%▲3 | >99%▲1 | — |
| 2 | Skelleftea | 15 (8) | 102 | 13 | 10%▼11 | 91%▼1 | 99%▼1 | <1% |
| 3 | Frolunda | 17 (8) | 96 | 11 | 7%▼18 | 83%▼10 | 97%▼2 | 1%▲1 |
| 4 | Brynas | 12 (8) | 85 | 10 | 2% | 61%▲5 | 90% | 3%▲1 |
| 5 | Rogle | 11 (8) | 84 | 8 | 1% | 58%▲5 | 90% | 3%▲1 |
| 6 | Malmo | 10 (7) | 78 | 12 | 1% | 45%▲3 | 81%▼2 | 7%▲2 |
| 7 | IF Bjorkloven | 17 (8) | 76 | 5 | 1% | 39%▲6 | 79%▲1 | 7%▲1 |
| 8 | Orebro | 11 (8) | 72 | 6 | <1% | 29%▲4 | 71%▲3 | 11% |
| 9 | Lulea | 10 (8) | 72 | 7 | <1%▼1 | 29%▼11 | 70%▼12 | 12%▲7 |
| 10 | HV 71 | 8 (8) | 68 | 9 | <1% | 22%▲6 | 61%▲4 | 18%▲1 |
| 11 | Vaxjo | 9 (8) | 66 | 3 | <1%▼1 | 20%▼21 | 57%▼24 | 21%▲16 |
| 12 | Djurgarden | 9 (8) | 60 | 2 | <1% | 11%▲7 | 44%▲16 | 30%▼14 |
| 13 | Timra | 7 (8) | 57 | 4 | <1% | 7%▲5 | 35%▲18 | 37%▼19 |
| 14 | Linkoping | 7 (7) | 52 | 1 | — | 4% | 24%▼1 | 51%▲5 |
Chance of every place
Show the 14 × 14 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farjestad | 78 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Skelleftea | 10 | 32 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Frolunda | 7 | 22 | 21 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Brynas | 2 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Rogle | 1 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Malmo | 1 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| IF Bjorkloven | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 |
| Orebro | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | |
| Lulea | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 4 | |
| HV 71 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | |
| Vaxjo | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | |
| Djurgarden | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 15 | ||
| Timra | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 20 | ||
| Linkoping | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 32 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.