VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Gornyak — HC Norilsk
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Gornyak are clear favourites: 68% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects plenty of goals: 5.1 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 45%.
Why
- Gornyak are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 2.1.
Facts
- League table: Gornyak — No. 13, 15 pts; HC Norilsk — No. 4, 20 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- HC Norilsk: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Gornyak 3 wins, HC Norilsk 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Gornyak — HC Norilsk | 3.0–2.1 | |
| Gornyak to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 68% | |
| HC Norilsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 32% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 45% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 55% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Gornyak
- Gornyak goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 06.10Bars2:3
- 04.10Almetyevsk1:2 SO
- 02.10CSK VVS5:2
- 26.09away · Khimik4:1
- 24.09away · Zvezda Moscow3:2
- 12.10Perm3:1
- 10.10Toros Neftekamsk5:3
- 08.10Izhevsk3:2
- 06.10Olympia3:2
- 01.10away · Kristall Saratov3:2 SO
Head to head
- 01.02.2026HC Norilsk — Gornyak0:1 SO
- 18.10.2025Gornyak — HC Norilsk4:1
- 04.04.2025HC Norilsk — Gornyak5:2
- 02.04.2025Gornyak — HC Norilsk12:1
- 30.03.2025HC Norilsk — Gornyak3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Playoffs | Omskie Krylia | 13 | 10 | +18 | 20 |
| 4, Playoffs | HC Norilsk | 15 | 9 | +2 | 20 |
| 5, Playoffs | Orsk | 12 | 8 | +13 | 19 |
| 12, Playoffs | Tambov | 13 | 7 | 0 | 16 |
| 13, Playoffs | Gornyak | 10 | 7 | +11 | 15 |
| 14, Playoffs | Bars | 14 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
VHL on the same day
- Chelmet ChelyabinskKrasnoyarskpreliminary63371The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
- Magnitka MagnitogorskMetallurg Novokuznetskpreliminary43572The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.3
- OrskDyn. Altaypreliminary59411The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1
- BarsAlmetyevskpreliminary36642The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.9
- Kristall SaratovTambovpreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →