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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 30 October, MSK

Hameenlinna — Kiekko-Espoo

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Model prediction for 30 October

Hameenlinna34%
Draw in regulation23%
Kiekko-Espoo43%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Kiekko-Espoo are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 35%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Hameenlinna — Kiekko-Espoo2.2–2.4
Hameenlinna to win (incl. OT and shootout)44%
Kiekko-Espoo to win (incl. OT and shootout)56%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)35%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)65%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Hameenlinna
  • Hameenlinna goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Hameenlinna

  • 10.10KooKoo5:3
  • 09.10away · Assat3:2 SO
  • 03.10Karpat2:1 OT
  • 02.10JYP2:1
  • 29.09away · Jokerit0:3

Kiekko-Espoo

  • 09.10JYP6:1
  • 07.10away · Karpat7:8 OT
  • 03.10away · Ilves4:6
  • 02.10Karpat1:3
  • 30.09TPS Turku4:2

Head to head

  • 21.01.2026Kiekko-Espoo — Hameenlinna2:3 OT
  • 09.01.2026Hameenlinna — Kiekko-Espoo2:0
  • 10.12.2025Kiekko-Espoo — Hameenlinna3:1
  • 20.09.2025Hameenlinna — Kiekko-Espoo3:2 OT
  • 22.02.2025Hameenlinna — Kiekko-Espoo5:4 OT

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsJYP10700330–25+521
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKiekko-Espoo13513442–32+1020
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa11521330–20+1020
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku11501529–25+416

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • AssatIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
  • LukkoKooKoopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
  • SaiPaJYPpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.6
  • TapparaIlvespreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
  • TPS TurkuPelicanspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.3
  • KalPaJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:15.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →