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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Pohjantahti-Areena

Hameenlinna — KooKoo

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Model prediction and result

5:3Missed
Hameenlinna31%
Draw in regulation22%
KooKoo47%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:3: the model's most likely outcome, KooKoo to win (60% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 60% fails in about 40 matches out of 100 on average.

KooKoo are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 45%.

Why

  • KooKoo are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.3.
  • Hameenlinna: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Hameenlinna — KooKoo2.3–2.8
Hameenlinna to win (incl. OT and shootout)40%
KooKoo to win (incl. OT and shootout)60%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)45%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)55%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Hameenlinna
  • Hameenlinna goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Hameenlinna

  • 09.10away · Assat3:2 SO
  • 03.10Karpat2:1 OT
  • 02.10JYP2:1
  • 29.09away · Jokerit0:3
  • 26.09Assat5:4 OT

KooKoo

  • 09.10Jukurit4:1
  • 03.10Pelicans3:6
  • 30.09away · Tappara0:3
  • 26.09Jukurit3:5
  • 25.09away · Ilves0:6

Head to head

  • 14.02.2026Hameenlinna — KooKoo2:4
  • 13.02.2026KooKoo — Hameenlinna7:3
  • 25.10.2025Hameenlinna — KooKoo4:5 SO
  • 24.10.2025KooKoo — Hameenlinna5:2
  • 11.03.2025Hameenlinna — KooKoo4:6

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku11501529–25+416
16, Relegation play-offJokerit13212825–42-1710
17, RelegationKooKoo121011025–52-274

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • SaiPaHameenlinna15 October · Liiga
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • Vaasan SportKooKoo15 October · Liiga
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.3

Liiga on the same day

  • JokeritIlves
    2The most likely outcome came true: 221%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:3.4.9
  • JukuritKarpat
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 2:1 in overtime. Model's score: 3:2.5.0
  • TapparaTPS Turku
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.5.0
  • IFK HelsinkiKalPa
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 6:1. Model's score: 2:3.5.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →